tipmypitch

The Mountain West jettisoned the two division format at the end of the 2022 season. Now all schools are of equal importance. No more division centered concerns, aka, Mountain division teams not as determined against West division teams and vice versa. Play the best football, enter the championship game. Given bowl eligibility, I’m guessing fifth place is the final finish for bowl consideration (nothing guaranteed, simply consideration).

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Boise State. Yes, a stunning surprise. Came out of nowhere.

Offense: Taylen Green enjoyed an exceptional first year at quarterback, and in the process displaced Hank Bachmeier. Mr. Green will direct an offense returning much of last year’s production. George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, last year’s #1 and #2 running combination, likely improve on 2022’s numbers. Both ran for 5+ yards per carry. The top four receivers from 2022 make Mr. Green’s life rather comfortable. Latrell Caples (51 catches), Billy Bowens (32), Stefan Cobbs (29) and Eric McAlister (11 with an eye watering 23.55 yards per reception) form the best group of wide receivers in the MW. Boise’s 2022 point average of 29.5 increases in 2023.

Defense: The Broncos gave up a meager 19.5 points per game last year. 2023 will feature a few more points allowed, but not to the detriment of their won-loss record and appearance in the MWC championship game. The defense loses 3 of their top 4 tacklers and half of their top ten, thus the Boise defensive coach staff landing four defensive linemen and one defensive back from the transfer portal. One to watch is Sheldon Newton (dl) the transfer from Northern Arizona. Forecasting a poor year on behalf of the Boise State defense is a bad bet.

Of Note: During 2022, the only quarter the Boise offense did not register a cumulative total of 100+ points was the first quarter (62).

Fresno State. Jeff Tedford and staff hit the transfer portal with intent. Quarterback Mikey Keene (UCF) and running back Damien Moore (Cal) along with two quality wide receivers immediately reloads the Bulldog offense for 2023.

Offense: The above mentioned Mr. Keene coupled with Logan Fife will lead to a year long spirited competition at quarterback. If one falters, the other provides as much ability. The Bulldogs will be a legitimate three-deep at the running back position. Mr. Moore and Malik Sherrod (5.4 ypc) and Elijah Gilliam (5.9 ypc) will provide a seemingly inexhaustible running game. Fresno loses 3 of their top 4 receivers which should be cause for concern, however, two transfers Jaelen Gill (BC) and Mikel Barkley (Toledo) provide experience and talent at the wide receiver spot. However, any significant injury may create cause for concern with the passing game.

Defense: 5 of their top 6 tacklers from 2023 return as well as 7 of the next top 10. Much like Boise State, the defense yields more in 2023, but not a significant amount. Given the offense’s promise, all the Bulldog defense needs to do is keep the game a two touchdown difference and all will be well.

Of Note: Fresno State’s 2022 defense allowed a mere 36% of third down conversions.

San Diego State. The Aztecs stumbled out of the gate last year, but with Ryan Lindley as offensive coordinator to begin the year rather than save the year, SDSU returns to their past consistency. Last year’s poor fourth quarter offense (48 total points scored in the fourth quarter for the entire 2022 season) disappears.

Offense: Jalen Mayden can play quarterback. Who knew? Taste the sarcasm? Good. Less injury, last year’s whack-a-mole of who wants to play quarterback will be no more. Mr. Mayden can throw and run. The Aztec running game has been a fart in the wind compared to past teams. Kenan Christon will have more opportunity to display his corner turning speed while Jaylon Armstead and Blake Martin will provide bruising runs between the tackles. Mekhi Shaw leads a group of unknown receivers.

Defense: A lot is lost, but game experienced replacements await. Transfers Cody Moon (New Mexico/lb) and Samuela Tuihalamaka (Oklahoma State/dl) will stop plenty of forward motion with vengeance. Defensive coordinator Kurt Mattix is one of the MWC’s best. Smart money says last year’s 20.5 points allowed per game enters the teens.

Of Note: How anemic was SDSU’s offense last year? The Aztec offense averaged less than one additional point compared to the Aztec defense (21.46 to 20.54). Boo.

Air Force. If Haaziq Daniels would have returned as quarterback, the Falcons would be in the third spot. Alas, ’tis not the case.

Offense: With Mr. Daniels no longer wearing a helmet, the Air Force offense is without an experienced qb. At this point I usually refer to the running game depth, yet, not so in 2023. Only 1 of their top 6 rushers returns. Fear not Air Force fans. We speak of Air Force. A running game will generate and points will be scored as the Falcons’ ball control talent whittles away the opponent’s hope.

Defense: The Air Force defense allowed an average of 13.4 points per game. Opponents did nothing. Only two teams (Nevada and Utah State) scored at least 20 points against the Falcon defense in 2022. 17 of their top 20 tacklers return. Opposing offenses will sweat the Air Force game.

Of Note: Air Force allowed a total of 10 rushing touchdowns and 10 passing touchdowns in 2022. Also, the Air Force offense averaged 36:33 with the ball each game.

San Jose State. The Spartans return enough offense to give pause to every MW opponent. Arrive with an unprepared defense, you will lose.

Offense: Chevan Cordeiro returns for an encore performance. Stellar 2022 numbers highlighted with only 6 interceptions in 427 attempts. Accuracy defined. In case Mr. Cordeiro suffers injury, the transfer portal delivered Jay Buttterfield from Oregon. Kairee Robinson, the leading 2022 rusher, returns. Candidly, the run support is thin. Quali Conley (Utah Tech) likely subs for Mr. Robinson as needed. SJSU loses 3 of their top 4 receivers, however given Mr. Cordeiro’s substantial skills, anybody who can run a route will receive a chance to make a catch.

Defense: The Spartan 2022 run defense was exceptional (3.2 ypc). The passing defense was solid (217.7 yards per reception), yet five games slipped away last year. Losing 11 of their top 20 tacklers implies another game or two slipping away in 2023.

Of Note: In 2022, the San Jose defense allowed 61.5% of fourth down conversions. The offensive line allowed 42 sacks for 292 yards lost. Ugh.

Utah State. Last year, I thought these guys would challenge Boise for the Mountain division title. Wrong.

Offense: Cooper Legas had a 1:1 td to interception ratio last year. 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. The former Wyoming qb Levi Williams offers plan B. Most likely, Aggie fans will see plenty of plan B in 2023. Robert Briggs will handle the bulk of hand-offs. He badly needs a partner. The top four receivers return. If Mr. Legas and/or Mr. Williams can get the ball downfield, a lot of talent (Brian Cobbs, Terrell Vaughn, Justin McGriff and Josh Sterzer) is looking for a catch.

Defense: The phrase “bad to worse” applies. The Aggies allowed an average of 31 points per game as well as a stunning 27 passing touchdowns. Opponents rolled for just shy of 400 total yards per game (399.2). USU lose 6 of their top 8 tacklers and 11 of their top 20. Some might wonder, well, since the missing will not play in 2023, how bad can USU be?

Of Note: Utah State’s offense was outscored every quarter in 2022.

Wyoming. Admittedly, I have a soft spot for head coach Craig Bohl. However, his inability to retain recruited talent is slowly leading to his downfall.

Offense: Even though Andrew Peasley returns as quarterback, Mr. Bohl landed the Iowa transfer Carson May. Quarterback has been the ugly spot of the Wyoming offense post-Josh Allen. Dawaiian McNeely and D.Q. James should form one of the better rushing duos in the MW. Harrison Waylee (Northern Illinois) will contribute as well. Wieland Wyatt (23 catches) and Treyton Welch (22) offer the beginning of a decent receiving group.

Defense: The Cowboys lose 7 of their top 20 tacklers from 2022. Nothing insurmountable. But, allowing 5.4 yards per play is a first down every two plays. Improvement is required for 2023. As of this typing, Wyoming had a total of four portal transfers joining the team. None are on the defensive side of the ball.

Of Note: Andrew Peasley’s 81 rushing attempts was second on the 2022 team. A sure sign of an offense and offensive line in need of improvement.

UNLV. A new head coach and lots of newbies on his staff. Barry Odom will have a full agenda as he assumes the seemingly never ending struggle of developing a Rebel football team that finishes one game above .500.

Offense: A two man competition between Doug Brumfield and Cameron Fiel likely continues as the season progresses. He who wins, plays. Courtney Reese is the #1 running back. He averaged a very impressive 7.2 ypc in 2022. Ricky White returns as the #1 receiver in 2022. If UNLV avoids slow starts in the first and third quarters, the offense improves. If not, anticipate disappointing results.

Defense: The Rebel defense allowed opponents a 60.7% success rate on fourth down conversions. Also consider allowing 43 red zone scores in 54 opportunities for the other guys. A great way to lose close games. 9 of their top 12 tacklers return. However, the Rebel defense needs a lot of work.

Of Note: Mr. Odom gathered 19 transfers. Hopefully a handful have an impact in 2023.

Colorado State. The Rams lost their first 4 games and 4 of their final 5 in 2022. Describing last year as “difficult” is an understatement. If Jay Norvell suffers another slow start in 2023, he lands on the hot seat.

Offense: Painful. 4 rushing touchdowns. 2.8 ypc. 16 offensive touchdowns. A meager 22.5% third down conversion rate. Only 23 moments in the red zone. Ugh. The quarterback spot is filed under “who knows?”. Avery Morrow returns as the #1 running back, but he needs help. Kobe Johnson, the North Dakota State transfer, likely provides the help. The top two receivers return, Troy Horton (71 catches) and Justus Ross-Simmons (26).

Defense: The Rams return 15 of their top 20 tacklers. A good place to start on the road to success. However given the offensive struggles, the defense needs to reduce last year’s 355 yards of total offense allowed per game.

Of Note: Mr. Norvell felt the need to dip deeply into the transfer portal. 17 new faces join the Rams in 2023.

New Mexico. If Danny Gonzales wins 5 games, rejoice Lobo faithful.

Offense: 2022’s offense averaged 13 points per game, scored 3 passing touchdowns, averaged 3.4 ypc and less than 4 yards per play. A whole lot needs fixin’. The Lobos are a mirror image of CSU at the quarterback position. Step up and win the job. I place my bet on Dylan Hopkins, the UAB transfer. Speaking of transfers, Andrew Henry from Louisiana-Monroe gets my vote to be the #1 back. Luke Wysong was the #1 receiver with 34 catches in 2022. Another sign of a struggling offense.

Defense: Rocky Long is now the Syracuse defensive coordinator. He did what was possible. Via graduation, eligibility ending and transfers, only 2 of the top 10 return. The Lobo defense will be hard pressed to match last year’s 360 yards allowed per game.

Of Note: The 2022 Lobo receiving corps averaged less than 10 yards per catch.

Hawai’i. The Rainbow Warriors lose their starting quarterback, top two rushers and two of their top three receivers. Let 2023 begin!

Offense: Whomever starts at quarterback will have precious little to work with. The running game must improve if the Rainbow Warrior’s historical preference to pass, pass, pass and pass some more is to yield ball movement in the right direction.

Defense: 438 yards per game was granted opponents in 2022. Only 3 of the top 10 tacklers return, but 8 of the next 10 return. Enough to make a difference? Probably not.

Of Note: In 2022, the only quarter Hawai’i scored more than 100 cumulative points was the fourth (105).

Nevada. They opened the 2022 with consecutive wins, then lost the remaining 10 games. Where to begin?

Offense: Last year’s group scored 7 touchdowns via the pass. The Wolf Pack barely averaged 300 yards per game (304.5). Shane Illingworth will compete against six other quarterbacks for the starting job. The 2023 running game starts from scratch with last year’s top three rushers gone. Dalevon Campbell, Jamaal Bell and Spencer Curtis get most of the snaps as wide receivers. Hopefully, they at least equal last year’s catches.

Defense: 15 of the top 20 tacklers return. The only quarter the Nevada defense allowed more than 100 cumulative points was the first (109), yet allowed almost 400 yards per game (396.2). Yuck. Half of their 16 transfers are on the defensive side of the ball. A dozen would have been more helpful.

Of Note: Last year’s defense granted opponents success 65% of the time on fourth down conversions.

A lot to consider especially with conference expansion continuing another wave of creative destruction/construction which could last well into 2023.

First, concerning the P-12’s negotiations with whomever (depends on the date) seem to have morphed since the November, 2022 claim of sending a “robust proposal” to ESPN and Amazon. Evidently, both companies yawned. Since this piece of seemingly imminent news, nothing has yet to develop with the P-12’s broadcast negotiations . . . with any media company. Fox, also during the month of November last year, reportedly was “sticking around” not wanting to miss out on 7:00 p.m. Saturday West coast football. Yet, here we sit with no P-12 renewal news or news of a new broadcast partner (streaming included) as of the date of my typing (2/12/23). In fact, one expansion maven referred to the P-12 as a “distressed brand” as recently as February 2, 2023. Distressed bands do not inspire confidence nor reflect positions of negotiating strength.

Scenarios galore surround the P-12 schools Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado joining the B-12. Given the tenuous (I’m being polite) nature of the P-12 negotiations, why the B-12 has not offered the aforementioned four P-12 schools is puzzling. The news of USC and UCLA joining the Big-10 was announced on August 2, 2022. Six months have passed. If the B-12 was serious about adding or offering four more schools, the bell has long been silent. Any two, forget four, schools that leave the P-12 signals the likely disintegration of the conference. Power Two (SEC and B-10) plus Two (B-12 and P-12) football is a billion dollar industry full of competition. Why would the B-12 wait to eliminate a business rival with a well timed invitation to current competitors? I am flummoxed.

On January27, 2023, SDSU athletic director, J.D. Wicker, sounded the call for a P-12 invitation while also suggesting a B-12 offer may be in the making. Obviously, Mr. Wicker is a man impatiently waiting on interest to mature. I believe he is also tapping his foot. The miracle moon shot would be an offer to the Aztecs from the B-12. Even though I mentioned the possibility of only two teams joining the B-12, if SDSU is offered then they (we) must be one of four in total. Running various scenarios involving media market size, local population/regional population, geographic location, stadium size, potential bowl game and success of men’s basketball, the Aztecs joining a combination of any of the following resulting in a total of four to the B-12: UNLV (don’t laugh. If Brett Yormark embraces his statement “The Big-12 is open for business” then he understands the idea of long-term investment) and the aforementioned Arizona schools along with Utah and Colorado.

I find dubious the published news as of February, 2023 that SMU is suddenly on the P-12 radar. SMU plays in a stadium smaller than Snapdragon. Glancing at their most recent ten-year won-loss record does not compare to the Aztecs over the same time period. However, the Mustang’s men’s basketball has largely been successful the last decade. Plus, the Dallas TV market is #5 nationally. Most impressive. Yet, I doubt, other than a SMU fan, anybody in Dallas finger punching the remote to switch from a UT football game to watch the Mustangs.

I again offer the idea of investing in Las Vegas (is this the line Bugsy Siegel used to convince his mob investors?) along with SDSU. In addition to owning the Nevada media market (sorry, Reno), a sizable football stadium (65,000 seats) and a very attractive bowl destination is part of any UNLV invite/acceptance.

Returning to P-12 contract negotiations and recent history, the P-12 is better served by expanding now, followed by negotiating with whomever. Certainly, a place and demand exists for 7:00 p.m. football (the fourth window of Saturday college football viewing) along with the occasional start times prior to the early evening. American football fans have a seemingly insatiable appetite for the college brand. The more George Kliavkoff delays, wonders and pauses about expansion the more unlikely a substantial increase in contract value. Consider the media attractiveness of Corvallis, OR and Pullman, WA in comparison to San Diego, Las Vegas and/or Dallas. Do you prefer a wilted flower to a bed or roses?

Now that the B-12 has granted Oklahoma and Texas an early exit to the tune of $100 million (with a portion bound for Fox to cover never to be broadcast 2023 Longhorn and Sooner football games), the time for further B-12 expansion seems well-timed. Certainly a portion of the non-Fox bound funds can be used to allure a candidate who may not be able to participate fully in the current B-12 media contract. Perhaps ESPN and Fox might consider an addendum to the recently contractual agreement resulting in close to a full share for the next wave of B-12 members? Happens everyday in the land of finance and business.

My hope for San Diego State University is the mildly unlikely B-12 invite. An accepted P-12 invite should include SDSU acknowledging and anticipating the possibility of ultimately belonging to a different group of member schools as compared to the current group to date as 2023 unfolds.

Meh.

A disappointing Hawaii Bowl loss caps a disappointing year.

I have nothing else to add with this post except for “wait until next year”.

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