Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Hawaii 31, SDSU 30

Posted: November 28, 2018 in Uncategorized
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A boggle of a loss.  Snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  The perfect end to a disappointing final three MWC games (therein lies the true hurt) of the 2018 season.  The 2018 season was equivalent to an at-fault fender bender followed by losing your wallet.  On Friday night.

John Barron missing from 32 was the moment.  Not to lay, nor do I dare lay, the loss on his talented foot, but if he makes that kick, we never hear the word “overtime.”  This missed kick led to Rocky’s decision to go for two and the game when a standard point after touchdown would have created a second ot and another chance to win.

Hawaii owned the first half.  Cole McDonald was Heisman material.  Then, the vaunted defensive adjustment occurred post-half time, and Mr. McDonald returned to scale, thus no longer shredding the Aztec back eight.  Registering zeros in the third and fourth quarters should have sealed an Aztec win.  But, “should” is a dangerous word:  You should take out the trash.  You should avoid the last beer.  You should eat less crap.

Finishing 7-5 and 4-4 (especially) is inexplicable.  A shoulder shrug of a season.  Coulda, shoulda, woulda.  The 2018 season is to Aztec football fans what Monday morning is to a guy who hates his job, but won’t search for another.

Speaking of searching, seems to me that coaching staff changes will be made.  I will not speculate about specific coaches, but the inconsistency of the running game coupled with the o-line’s inability to block consistently will receive the cold glare of slow review from Rocky.  These guys know coaching is a business.  Things change.  Time advances.  Ideas evolve.  Do we remain Pound and Ground U?  Ryan Agnew threw enough to notice during his time in place of Christian Chapman.  I will say the wide receivers finally delivered a quality season long effort this year.  Something to shift towards or build upon for 2019?

The cold comfort of the MWC portion of our season is our total point spread for the 4 losses was 4 (Nevada), 3 (UNLV), 9 (Fresno State) and 1 (Hawaii).  All 4 losses were within our grasp, but a loss is a loss.  Will next year yield the same without change or major adjustment?

Finally, I doubt, strongly, that any bowl is interested in us given our sloppy end to a promising season.  Perhaps such polite decline is the ultimate motivator during spring ball, 2019.

 

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Consecutive MWC losses since I don’t know when.  Perhaps that is a good sign.

Hanging zeros in the third and fourth quarters is proof of a struggling offense.  We gained 64 yards on the ground the entire evening.  Our struggle to block continues.  Additionally, the offense created a paltry 8 first downs the entire game.  No offense stays on the field long enough to score with that few first downs.  The only good offensive news was SDSU receivers averaging 27.2 yards per completion.  Between Christian and Ryan, 8 passes were completed.  Each lays claim to 4.  Spread the mediocrity to equal measure.  Look!  We are both crappy.

Congrats to the defense for keeping the Bulldogs far under their offensive average.  Kyahva Tezino (15 tackles) and Parker Baldwin (14 tackles) gave me a reason to continue watching the game.  At least we had the decency to sack Mr. McMaryion 3 times while he enjoyed a 17/24/267 night.

Fred Trevillion had his best game by far with a line of 4/189 and 2 scores.  Maybe he can repeat that line against Hawaii.

If you did not notice, Hawaii is tied with us for third place in the West.  Saturday night, we arrive ready to play or we end the MWC season with a rough 4-4 record.  Bowl eligible is not the same as an invitation.

7-4/4-3.

 

Ugly was pretty.  Who knew?

The first half featured the Aztec offense wondering what game was played?  Hockey?  Softball?  Tennis?  Why is the ball weirdly shaped?  We could not have looked and played with more incompetency.  Bad is a compliment.  Seemingly, false starts were the order of the day.  We had, I don’t know, 14, 26, 37 false starts.  Sure, I exaggerate, but my point of an absent offense is well taken.  You are welcome.

The good news:  We won.  Fred Trevillion caught the first pass thrown to him.  And did not have a single drop the entire game.  New horizons for Fred.  Chase Jasmin gained the most grueling 78 yards of his life.  He left the game limping (not good news).  His pinball bounce move in the fourth quarter set up Jordan Byrd’s 72 yard run.  Without Chase reversing course, a different outcome emerges.  Kobe Smith can catch punts.  Luq Barcoo is good.  Depth charts don’t mean much to Rocky.  Darren Hall, Connor Mitchell and Damon Moore enjoyed many minutes on the field.  Darren recorded a pick and Damon a sack.  Zidane Thomas had two carries (his first carry was during our third offensive possession of the game.  You think I don’t notice).  He is the fifth running back on the almighty chart.  Who needs starters?

God bless, John Barron.  Without him, we are an average football team hanging our hat on fourth and whatever.

In addition to Darren Hall’s interception, I applaud Tariq Thompson and Ronley Lakalaka for good hands.  Kyahva Tezino will provide nightmares for Brett Rypien the remainder of the season.  Kyahva delivered many a body shiver.  Brandon Heicklen was booming the ball.  He averaged 44.9 yards on 8 punts.  Well done.

I was surprised by Boise not attempting an onside kick after the missed extra point with 5:07 remaining.  Thank you, Boise coaching staff.

As for the numbers, the Aztec defense held Boise to an average of 2.9 yards per play.  Boise had 2 rushing yards at the end of the first quarter.  At the half, they had a total of 72 yards of offense.  The Broncos ballyhooed passing game stalled at 8.1 yards per catch and a slight 178 yards for the game.  If I told you before kickoff that the Aztecs would have 9 first downs and 267 yards of total offense, you would have asked, “Did we lose by two or three touchdowns?”

Thank you, Rocky.

4-1/1-0.

Go, Aztecs.

 

 

SDSU West: Final Thoughts

Posted: October 6, 2018 in Uncategorized

 

SDSU West developed in full sun light.  Soccer City tried desperately to avoid the ballot, at best wanting a special election, thankfully denied by the San Diego City Council.  Numerous private discussions with Mayor Faulconer ultimately proved a waste of time.

SDSU expanding campus into Mission Valley allows the school to accept thousands of more students and graduate thousands of more students.  These young men and women enter the California work force educated and making above average salaries that in turn make our state’s economy grow.  SDSU West generates long-term economic health for decades to come.  Additionally, the university’s expansion requires more professors, academic support staff and administration to join the current SDSU work force of 42,000, which strengthens the tax base of San Diego.

Speaking of tax, SDSU West relies on zero tax payer support.  None.  Nada.  Zip.

SDSU committed more than 50% (approximately 85 acres) of the site purchase to open space via the creation of a San Diego River park, biking/hiking trails, community parks and recreation fields.  Soccer City does not have a legal obligation to develop a river park. Options rather than written commitment dominate their ideas about the development of open space.  Options that lead to little green area development other than two benches under a tree.  Wiggle room carries the day for Soccer City.

FS Investors purposefully underestimated the daily traffic generated by their retail dominated development.  FS Investors claimed daily traffic at 71,500 trips while SANDAG estimated a minimum of 97,000 daily auto excursions through Mission Valley.  Miscalculating by 25,500 (or 36%) daily auto trips is pure misrepresentation.  I suppose such gross miscalculation is never seen regarding FS Investors long-term planning.  I cannot imagine a FS Investor board member shrugging his shoulders at a meeting discussing revenue when an error of 36% is discovered.

Remember the Chargers?  The good years and all that traffic.  Imagine that four-wheel nightmare on a daily basis.  I give you Soccer City on a daily basis.  SDSU West is projected to generate daily traffic trips of 60,440 or 38% fewer trips compared to Soccer City.  Retail lives 365 days.  Imagine the grind of traffic during the holidays and summer.  The heaviest traffic load SDSU West will create is the Monday through Thursday 8:00 a.m. rush to class.  Remember, SDSU hits the traffic snooze button during the summer and about six weeks from December to January.

Consider the inevitable slowing economy or recession.  740,00 square feet of Soccer City retail themed development crumbles into a hollow shell of empty businesses, vacant parking lots and the formerly employed of Soccer City looking for work elsewhere.  Horton Plaza serves as a fine wreck of an example of too much retail during economic contraction.  The mere idea that Soccer City is retail dependent gives cause for pause in a city loaded with technology companies and the associated well paid work force.  A sales associate at a jewelry store instead of a technological entrepreneur?  Since when?  Which is best for San Diego?

FS Investors does not have a Major League Soccer team at the ready to deposit in their stadium.  By the way, that stadium has a mandated construction date of 2025!  They push the stadium as a center piece of Soccer City.  Yet, they seem prepared to keep the tools in the shed for a number of years.  They must admit that expanding their soccer stadium to meet the needs of Aztec football is limited and most definitely unlikely.  FS Investors is a business.  What benefit do they receive by altering their soccer stadium to placate SDSU’s desire for increased seating during football games that brings no revenue to FS Investors?

Contrast the definitely-maybe Soccer City approach to stadium building to SDSU’s much spoken, much researched and much desired need for a stadium.  Do note, that university officials, while desirous of a football stadium, do not view the stadium as the center piece of SDSU West development.  The stadium is part of the proposal.  Not the proposal.  SDSU has generated and made public their vision of a football stadium.  SDSU has a football team ready to use the stadium.  SDSU does not need to search for a team to place inside the stadium as does Soccer City.

SDSU is a research based university.  Acquiring $134 million in research funding and grants during the 2017/18 academic year does not happen by accident.  No other Cal State campus comes close and one-third of UC campuses do not secure as much funding.  SDSU has accessed similar amounts of research funding dating back to 2015.  In recent years, SDSU’s Campaign raised $815 million for campus wide funding.  The school produces more than $457 million in state and local taxes.  Expanding SDSU into Mission Valley makes these dollars grow substantially.  As FS Investors will tell you, this is all about the money.

 

 

 

 

Aztecs 28, Sac State 14

Posted: September 9, 2018 in Uncategorized

So much ugly, so little time.

We were lucky.  Sacramento State was looking like Eastern Illinois and Cal Poly SLO.  We were looking at 0-2.  Thankfully, we decided to play football the entire fourth quarter.

The offensive line disappointed consecutive games.  More sustained pushing and shoving is needed.  Juwan Washington rushing 36 times for an average of 4.3 yards per carry is an indication of an anemic o-line.

Christian Chapman is likely to miss the Arizona State game.  Ryan Agnew filled in admirably.  11/17/159 is a productive half of football.  Sure, the two picks kept Sac State in the game, but the Aztec defense allowed one score, rather than two, off the interceptions.

Ethan Dedeaux, Kahale Warring and Tim Wilson, Jr. made the most of their 6, 3 and 3 receptions.  211 of the evening’s total of 271 yards receiving were due to their talents.  Not bad and something to build on.

God bless John Barron.  Without his 52 and 32 yard scores, the first half is absolutely miserable.

Speaking of miserable, the Aztec defense held the Hornets to 1.7 yards per rush and a mere 234 yards of total offense.

Disaster averted.  Arizona State is next.  At least we are at home.

1-1.

Go, Aztecs.

 

Fear not, a post-Penny letdown will not occur.

I will start with the offense.

Christian Chapman (sr) is the equivalent of a hard working spouse who never misses a day of work, remembers anniversaries and birthdays, enjoys a beer on a hot day and always wears sunscreen.  At times his average passing numbers frustrate me, but I counsel myself with the fact he is mostly mistake free and wins.  This year’s back-up is junior Ryan Agnew (a man waiting his turn if there ever was) or redshirt freshmen Mark Salazar.

Juwan Washington (jr) is a mix of Donnel Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny.  A-la Pumphrey, Juwan can do the excuse-me-pardon-me side step routine or he can bowl you over and leave foot prints on your chest.  His choice.  The #2 back is a contest between Chase Jasmin (so), Chance Bell (r-fr) and Kaegun Williams (r-fr).  However, I would not be surprised to see Jeff Horton take a look at freshmen Zidane Thomas and Jordan Byrd during the Sacramento State and Eastern Michigan games.  I find Mr. Thomas to be the most intriguing of all those standing behind Mr. Washington.

For the first time since Rocky Long’s Aztec coaching tenure, a duo of fullbacks may enjoy the smacking of opposing linebackers and defensive backs.  Isaac Lessard (jr) will enjoy most of the snaps.  Chad Woolsey (sr) moves to the fullback spot on behalf of depth, talent and options for Jeff Horton.

And now, the ever under achieving wide receivers.  Hunkie Cooper gets these guys to block like linemen, now is the long overdue moment to get them to CATCH A PASS!  Fred Trevillion (sr) is far too fond of dropping his first attempt.  When Fred did hold on to a Christian Chapman toss, he averaged an eye-popping 27 yards per catch.  Sadly, that happened a mere 12 times in 2017.  Tim Wilson (so) and Isiah Macklin (so) are likely partners opposite Mr. Trevillion.  If these three disappoint, coach Cooper has 13 other wide receivers to choose from in the never-ending attempt to CATCH A PASS!

Speaking of catching passes, thank goodness for tight ends.  Juniors Kahale Warring and Parker Houston form the best tight end duo in the MWC.  Much catching and running forward awaits.

The Aztec offensive line will be the best in conference and top-5 west of the Rockies (in 2019, I will move that claim to the Mississippi River).  Tyler Roemer (so), Daishawn Dixon (jr), Dominic Gudino (so), Keith Ismael (so) and Ryan Pope (sr) will pound, push, shove and smack from left to right.  I expect Nick Gerhard (jr), Kyle Spalding (so) and Zachary Thomas (so) to push for playing time.  Please note, Ryan Pope is the only senior in that sizable (pun intended) group.  Offensive line coach Mike Schmidt sleeps well.

Now to the other side.  Rocky’s side.

Noble Hall (sr) returns to nose guard.  He will be the anchor to the swirl of Damon Moore (sr), Chibu Onyeukwu (sr), Myles Cheatum (jr), Anthony Luke (sr) and Josh Robinett (so).  Look forward to the fury.

The linebacker spot is loaded as usual.  Leading tackler from 2017, Ronley Lakalaka (jr) will start with Kyahva Tezino (jr) and Andrew Aleki (so).  Substantial minutes await Troy Cassidy (jr), Kaelin Himphill (so) and Josh Bringuel (so).  One to watch is Seyddrick Lakalaka (r-fr), brother of Ronley.

The back five will be Parker Baldwin (sr and #2 tackler from 2017), Ron Smith (jr), Tariq Thompson (so and likely candidate to intercept more passes than Damontae Kazee), Jeff Clay (jr) and Kyree Woods (jr) or Trenton Thompson (so).  In the mix is Tayler Hawkins (so), Garett Binkley (jr), Will Stricklin II (so) and Jeff Chaney (jr).  This group is experienced and deep.

The kicking game belongs to the ultra-confident John Barron II (sr).  I do not look forward to his departure at the end of this season.

The punting efforts of Brandon Heicklen must improve in 2018.  Mr. Heicklen was as consistent as a distracted five-year old in the cereal aisle.

Doug Deakin and Richard Sanchez join the coaching staff.  These two gentlemen have the sizable task of keeping the special teams to the considerable level established by Bobby Hauck.  No small duty.

The usual and frustrating challenge of putting butts in the seats remains.  Granted, attendance has improved during Rocky’s tenure.  But, the creep towards averaging a minimum of 35,000 fans is vexing.

Wins will total a minimum of 8 or a maximum of 12.  Consecutive bowl game #9 awaits.

Go, Aztecs.

 

 

From the first snap, we were elsewhere.  Four (!) personal foul penalties in the first half was a gift of 60 yards to the Black Knights.  The last act of kindness we needed to offer a team that took “pound and ground” to a new level . . . against us.

Antonio Rosales getting tossed early in the game summed his entire year.  Mr. Rosales was not part of the offensive line for most of the year.  Why include him at the end of the year?  His start was badly timed and lent to the lack of focus during the first half.

Army’s offensive line was lower and faster than the Aztec defensive line.  The result was those mind-numbing drives that took 10+ minutes off the clock.  If you didn’t notice, Army had the ball 10+ minutes each quarter.  The Aztec offense rarely found the football to snap and throw (14 minutes to the second the entire game).  Less Rashaad Penny (save your money) and Juwan Washington, the offense never established any rhythm to speak of.

Kudos to Anthony Luke and his interception.  A rare bright spot.

Good luck to Bobby Hauck and Danny Gonzales.  New opportunity and well deserved, though I grimace at coaching changes.

10-3 finishes the year.  Not so bad, but I suffer from coulda, shoulda, woulda.  If I fold my arms and frown at 10-3, life is good for SDSU football.  Keep the frowns coming.

 

 

As stated in my 2017 A.L. rankings, no preamble.

First:  St. Louis (3.4  MLB best).  Only two positions need any hint of improvement (short and third).  St. Louis may have the best catching prospect in all of baseball, Andrew Knizner.  He will arrive no later than 2019.  Though, fear not Cardinal fans, lots of help and choice is on the way for 2018.

Starting pitching rated well.  Relief pitching rated better.

2018 Help:  The previously mentioned Mr. Knizner, Luke Voit (1b, MLB/AAA), Rangel Ravelo (1b, AAA), Alex Mejia (2b, MLB/AAA), Breyvic Valer (2b, MLB/AAA), Nick Martini (lf, AAA/AA), Jose Adolis Garcia (rf, AAA/AA), Jack Flaherty (starter, MLB/AAA/AA), Mark Montgomery (reliever, AAA), Josh Lucas (reliever, MLB/AAA), Sam Tuivailala (reliever, MLB/AAA) and John Brebbia (reliever, MLB/AAA).  A couple of years away help, Magneuris Sierra (cf, AA/A+) and Jacob Evans (reliever, A+).

Second:  Arizona (3.3).  Less third base, all other 2-9 positions rated 4.0.  Lots of candidates to look over during March, 2018.

Starting pitching development is lagging.  Relief development is above average.

2018 Help:  Christian Walker (1b, MLB/AAA.  Good enough to trade Paul Goldschmidt?  Probably not), Ildemaro Vargas (2b, MLB/AAA), Kevin Medrano (2b, AAA/AA), Ketel Marte (ss, MLB/AAA), Rey Fuentes (cf, MLB/AAA), Oswaldo Arcia (rf, MLB/AAA and the best of all Arizona outfield prospects), Jimmie Sherfy (reliever, MLB/AAA), Jacob Miller (reliever, AAA/AA) and Gabriel Moya (reliever, MLB/AA.  No AAA.  Why?  Dumb, dumb, dumb).  2019 or later help, Mark Karaviotis (1b, A+/A), Ramon Hernandez (3b, A), Ben DeLuzio (lf, A+/A, though he played mostly rf in A ball), Yoan Lopez (reliever, A+) and Kirby Bellow (reliever, A+).

Third:  L.A. (3.2).  Not as deep per position as St. Louis or Arizona, but close.  Given the relative youth of the Dodgers, I’m guessing many of the 2018 Help names would be available for trade.

Starting pitching improved, while relief pitching took a step backwards.

2018 Help:  Willie Calhoun (2b, MLB/AAA), Tim LoCastro (2b, AAA/AA, though he logged more games in center than second at the AA level), Jose Fernandez (2b, AA), Max Muncy (3b, MLB/AAA), Rob Segedin (3b, MLB/AAA), Alex Verdugo (cf, MLB/AAA), Henry Ramos (rf, AAA/AA), Yusniel Diaz (rf, AA/A+), Scott Barlow (starter, AA), Tim Shibuya (starter, AA) and Brian Moran (reliever, AA).  2019 help, Jose Brizuela (1b, A+) and Johan Mieses (cf, A+.  One to watch).

Fourth:  Pittsburgh (2.9).  Strength is found at catcher, second and left.  Improvement is needed at short, third, center and right.

Starting pitching holds a strong mix of MLB/AAA and AA/A+ 2017 exposure.  Relief development is not on par with starting pitching.

2018 Help:  Jacob Stallings (c, MLB/AAA), Edwin Espinal (1b, AAA), Jordan Luplow (lf, MLB/AAA/AA), Jordan George (mostly dh at the AA/A+ level.  Perfect trade material for an A.L. team) and Tyler Glasnow (starter, MLB/AAA).  2019/20 help, Stephen Alemais (2b, A+), Hunter Owen (3b, A, but needs to reduce his 16 kicks) and Pedro Vasquez (starter, A+).

Fifth (tie):  Philadelphia (2.8).  The Phils boast the best defensive catchers in development in the N.L.  Six rated catchers have toss rates ranging from 33% to 47%.  Outstanding.  Now that Carlos Santana plays first base in Philadelphia, does Rhys Hopkins return to AAA for left field school or stay in Philly and learn on the job (a shaky proposition)?

Starting pitching development is one of the best in the N.L while relief pitching is just a step behind.

2018 Help:  Scott Kingrey (2b, AAA/AA), Drew Stankiewicz (2b, AA/A+), Andrew Pullin (lf, AA), Carlos Tocci (cf, AA), Thomas Eshelman (starter, AAA/AA) along with fellow starters (Nick Pivetta and Ben Lively who did not pitch quite enough in Philadelphia during 2017 to lose their prospect status), Jesen Therrien (reliever, MLB/AAA) and Yacksel Rios (reliever, MLB/AAA/AA).  Distant help, Jesus Alastre (rf, A) and the A+ relief quartet of Luke Leftwich, J.D. Hammer, Austin Davis and Trevor Bettencourt.

Fifth (tie):  Colorado (2.8).  First, short and center offer immediate help.

Both types of pitching are solid if unspectacular.

2018 Help:  Jordan Patterson (1b, MLB/AAA), Ryan McMahon (1b, MLB/AAA), Brian Mundell (1b, AA/A+), Daniel Castro (ss, MLB/AAA), Mike Tauchman (cf, MLB/AAA), Raimel Tapia (cf, MLB/AAA), Noel Cuevas (rf, AAA), Ryan Carpenter (starter, AAA), Sam Howard (starter, AAA/AA) and the AA relief trio of James Farris, Shane Broyles and Matt Pierpont.  2019 or so help, Hamlet Marte (c, A+), Tyler Nevin (1b, A), Colton Welker (3b, A), Brendan Rogers (ss, A+), Jose Gomez (ss, A), Wes Rogers (lf, A+) and Sam Hilliard (rf, A+).

Sixth:  NYM (2.7).  Enough depth to earn no less than average at all 2-9 spots.  Hardly a ringing endorsement, but they could be worse (as you will soon read once we get to #10).

Both starting and relief pitching rated above average.  Given the Mets recent arm woes (the Angels of the N.L.), the Mets organization could afford no worse than a 3.0 rating for both types of pitching.

2018 Help:  Kevin Plawecki (c, MLB/AAA.  Kevin can hit, but he can’t throw out a baserunner for a cold beer during a July day game.  How about first base or left?), Dominic Smith (1b, MLB/AAA), Ahmed Rosario (ss, MLB/AAA), Christopher Flexen (starter, MLB/AA), Marcos Molina (starter, AA/A+), Tim Peterson (reliever, AA), Alberto Baldonado (reliever, AA), Drew Smith (reliever, AA) and Kyle Regnault (reliever, AA).  2019 forward help, Anthony Dimino (c, A+), Jeff McNeil (2b, A+) and Austin McGeorge (reliever, A+).

Seventh:  San Diego (2.5).  2-9 spots bounce from 1.0 (second and right) to 4.0 (center).

Starting and relief both rated above average.

2018 Help:  Jose Pirela (1b, MLB/AAA), Rafael Ortega (cf, MLB/AAA), Franchy Cordero (cf, MLB/AAA), Kyle McGrath (reliever, MLB/AAA/AA.  Mr. McGrath threw a whopping 6 innings in AAA), Joey Lucchesi (reliever, AA) and Rafael DE Paula (reliever, AA).  2019/2020 help, Austin Allen (c, A+).

Eighth (tie): Atlanta (2.1).  I thought the Padres were thin, then I finished Atlanta.  Only one 2-9 spot rated higher than above average; center.  Three positions (first, short and third) have only two prospects per.

Starting pitching development offers at least two prospects while relief pitching is mostly face down in an algae laced lake.

2018 Help:  Austin Riley (3b, AA), Ronald Acuna (cf, AAA/AA/A+.  Atlanta bound in 2018), Xavier Avery (cf, MLB/AAA), Lucas Sims (starter, MLB/AAA) and Luis Gohara (starter, MLB/AAA/AA/A+.  As rapid a rise as Mr. Acuna).  Dots on the horizon of help, Alay Lago (2b, A+), Tyler Neslony (rf, A+) and Jon Kennedy (reliever, A).

Eighth (tie):  Cincinnati (2.1).  Maybe four guys who aren’t pitchers get a call during 2018.  Development at short, third and left has mysteriously been put on hold.

Much like Atlanta, thank goodness for starting pitching or the mound is a vacant lot.

2018 Help:  Nick Senzel (2b, AA/A+.  He has the bat and the glove), Juan Perez (ss, AAA), Tyler Goeddel (cf, AAA/AA), Jesse Winkler (rf, MLB/AAA.  Jay Bruce is long gone.  Your time is upon you, Mr. Winkler) and Tyler Mahle (starter, MLB/AAA/AA).  2019-ish help, Shedric Long (2b, A+), Taylor Trammell (3b, A) and the A ball relief trio of Jesse Adams, Ryan Hendrix and Dauri Moreta.

Ninth:  Milwaukee (2.0).  First, short and third each rated 1.0, and there go the Brewers.

Starting pitching has prospects.  Relief is in tatters and scored a 0.  Why?  One AAA guy, one AA guy, four A+ guys, two A guys and the last two spots were not filled.  That’s why.

2018 Help:  Two guys could offer substantial help.  Lewis Brinson (cf, MLB/AAA) and Brett Phillips (rf, MLB/AAA).  Nathan Orf (2b, AAA) is the only other 2-9 player likely to live in Milwaukee during the summer of 2018.  Cody Ponce (starter, AA/A+) and Corbin Burnes (starter, AA/A+) both need a full year in AAA, but probably won’t get it.  Future help, Keston Hiura (dh, A) and Brad Kuntz (reliever, A+).

Tenth:  Miami (1.9).  One guy each at second, short and right.  Average at catcher and first.

Both starting and relief earned 1.0.  Boo.  What exactly do system wide pitching coaches do?

2018 Help:  Brian Anderson (2b, MLB/AAA), Christian Colon (2b, MLB/AAA), Eury Perez (lf, MLB/AAA), Dillon Peters (starter, MLB/AA.  Skipped AAA) and James Buckelew (reliever, AA).  2019 and beyond help, Ben Meyer (starter, A+).  Nobody else.

Eleventh:  Washington (1.8).  Second, short, third and right have one or two candidates at A+  or A ball.  That is not depth.  That is indicative of wasting time and money while pretending to have a development system.

Starting pitching earned a 1.0 while relief was average.

2018 Help:  Victor Robles (cf, MLB/AA/A+.  Granted, I believe Mr. Robles is a future top-notch MLB player, but why he was rushed to Washington – a playoff team – is the definition of thoughtless development) and John Sims (starter, AA).  Future help, Juan Soto (rf, A), Grant Borne (starter, A+) and R.C. Orlan (reliever, A+).  Refer to my final sentence regarding the Marlins.

Twelfth:  Cubs (1.7).  Lots of average and below average development.  As an example, catching finished with six guys rated, but nobody was more than serviceable.  First and short had similar results.  In the corporate world, the Cubs system would be loaded with middle management.

Starting pitching is as bad as Miami’s and Washington’s.  Relief pitching scored above average (one of two positions to do so).

2018 Help:  Victor Caratini MLB/AAA.  He can hit, but finds baserunners impossible), Brad Markey (reliever, AAA/AA) and Daury Torrez (reliever, AA).  2019/2020 help, Viamel  Machin (3b, A), Roberto Caro (rf, A), Michael Rucker (starter, A+), Pedro Araujo (reliever, A+) and Craig Brooks (reliever, A+).  The Cubs and Nats are addicted to free agency.  These two organizations abide by the dictum of “play catch” in their respective player development systems.

Thirteenth:  San Francisco (1.6).  Not a single candidate at first or center.  Nobody.  Zero.  Nada.  Zilch.  One guy at short.  Two guys each at catcher, second, and left.  Three guys at third.

Starting pitching earned a 1.0.  Relief a 2.0.

2018 Help:  Ryder Jones (3b, MLB/AAA) and Austin Slater (rf, MLB/AAA).  2019+ future help, Ryan Howard (ss, A+), Bryan Reynolds (rf, A+), Ryan Halstead (reliever, A+), Dustin Knight (reliever, A+) and Pat Ruotolo (reliever, A).  The Giants are the bottom of bottoms in player development.  Cold winds blow off San Francisco Bay.  So, too, throughout the development levels of AAA, AA, A+ and A ball.  Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

 

 

 

No more preamble.  Read the prior years if you wonder or have question about my ratings.  Enjoy, if you must.

A.L.

First (tie):  L.A. Anaheim Angels (3.2 rating).  Why Carlos Perez does not get a longer look in Anaheim is a puzzle.  He crushed opposing pitching (for a catcher) and has a AAA toss rate of 41%.  First, second and left along with catching are the strongest of the 2-9 spots.  Left and right are a short step behind.

Relief pitching develops at a faster rate than starting pitching.  Eric Karch (AA) and Greg Mahle (MLB/AAA/AA, though his AAA numbers in no way indicated a 2017 arrival to the Show) are the best of the bullpen candidates while Jordan Kipper (AA) may well see the Big A before the end of the 2018 season (especially in light of the Angels’ substantial arm woes).

2018 Help:  The above mentioned Mr. Perez, Mr. Karch, Mr. Mahle (though a full year in AAA might be a better idea) and Mr. Kipper, Matt Thaiss (1b, AA/A+), Kaleb Cowart (3b.  His AAA offensive numbers are considerable.  2018 is his last chance to land a full-time gig in Anaheim), Cesar Puello (cf, MLB/AAA), Ramon Flores (rf, MLB/AAA) and Forrest Allday (rf, AA).

First (tie):  Oakland (3.2).  Depth at second, third, left and center.  The only average 2-9 spot is first (assuming Matt Olson makes the team at the end of March, 2018, precious little is behind him at the lower levels).

Starting pitching is a struggle.  Less Dustin Hurlbutt (A+), the A’s will do a lot of up-down shuttling with their top-five starting candidates (Zach Neal, Paul Blackburn, Frankie Montas, James Naile and Corey Walter) until one of the five hopefully sticks.  Relief development is a tad better, but without a standout.

2018 Help:  Mr. Hurlbutt (but beware the rush job), Sheldon Neuse (3b, AA/A+ and  potential plus), Tyler Ramirez (lf, AA/A+ and potential plus), Yairo Munoz (ss, AA) and B.J. Boyd (cf, AA).  Two guys who are two years away are Brett Siddall (lf, A+) and Seth Brown (rf, A+).

Second (tie):  Baltimore (3.1).  Only left field rated average.  All the 2-9 spots rated above average.  Catching is overflowing with choice (or trade bait to those organizations who struggle to develop catching depth).  Chance Cisco (c, MLB/AAA), Audrey Perez (c, MLB/ AAA) and Austin Wynns (c, AA) can all knock the cover off the ball.  Francisco Pena (MLB/AAA) has a 56% toss rate at AAA.

Bullpen development is arguably the best in the A.L.  Eight of their top ten are in AAA and AA.  Starting pitching, not so much.  Average at best and nowhere near MLB ready as the relievers.

2018 Help:  Any of the above mentioned catchers, Luis Sardinas (2b, MLB/AAA), D.J. Stewart (lf, AA), Austin Hays (cf, MLB/AA.  Yep, he skipped AAA.  Tremendous potential), Gabriel Rosa (rf, AA), Jimmy Yacabonis (relief, MLB/AAA) and Donnie Hart (relief, MLB/AAA).  Guys two years away are Jomar Reyes (2b, A+), Ryan Mountcastle (ss, A+), Alex Wells (starter, A) and Luis Gonzalez (reliever, A+).

Second (tie):  NYY (3.1).  Need a first baseman, shortstop or left fielder?  Call Brian Cashman.  He has plenty to choose from . . . though sometimes I wonder what Brian wonders.  Two spots that do need improvement are second (one candidate, Nick Solak) and right (two possibilities, the average duo of Jhalan Jackson and Isiah Gilliam).

Starting pitching is deep.  Five legitimate candidates to stay in the Bronx in 2018 and beyond, four of which had the “cup of coffee”  and AAA innings in 2017:  Caleb Smith, Luis Cessa, Domingo German and Dietrich Enns.  The fifth is my personal favorite, Chance Adams (AAA/AA).  The bullpen also does well.  All of the top ten are a mix of MLB/AAA, AAA and AA experience during 2017.

2018 Help:  The starters were already mentioned.  The best of the ‘pen is Ben Heller (MLB/AAA) and Tyler Webb (MLB/AAA).  Position players are Miguel Andujar (3b. MLB/AAA), Tyler Wade (ss, MLB/AAA), Gleyber Torres (ss, AAA/AA.  His AAA performance was outstanding), Thairo Estrada (ss, AA) and Jorge Mateo (ss, AA), Jack Cave (cf, AAA/AA and cool name) and Jeff Hendrix (cf, AA/A+).  Two to three years away, Carlos Vidal (lf, A).

Second (tie):  Tampa Bay (3.1).  First and right were exceptional.  Catching, second, third and left were above average.  The question for 2018 is can the five AA guys who rated best at their positions (Dalton Kelly, Riley Unroe, Grant Kay, Joe McCarthy and Braxton Lee) make the jump to the big club in 2018?

Relief pitching development is exceptional.  Five of the top ten relievers received my coveted asterisk (at least coveted by me).  All starting pitching top ten prospects are AA ball and up.  Rare air.

2018 Help:  Besides the five 2-9 players mentioned above, Justin Williams (rf, AA), Chih-Wei Hu (starter, MLB/AAA), Ryan Yarbrough (starter, AAA), Jose Mujica (starter, AA), Andrew Kittredge (relief, MLB/AAA), Ryan Stanck (relief, MLB/AAA), Diego Castillo (relief, AA).  Two years or so away, consider Brett Sullivan (c, A+), Daniel Rodriguez (c, A+), Brandon Lowe (2b, A+), Mike Brosseau (3b, A+/A), Spencer Jones (relief, A+) and Dalton Moats (relief, A+).

Second (tie):  Houston (3.1).  If their starting and relief pitching each rated better than average, the Astros would have rated first in A.L. development.  ’tis not the case.  All position players less shortstop have at least four guys who rated.  Spring training will be a gladiator fest to see who survives.  All outfield signs at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches during the month of March should have Darwin references to survival and change.  Yeah, the Astros are that deep.

Pitching is a slow step away from horrid.  Only one AAA starting candidate (Rogelio Armenteros).  The majority of the top ten pitched in A+ during 2017.  Thus, too soon to say.  Relievers closely modeled their starter counterparts.

2018 Help:  A.J. Reed (1b, MLB/AAA), Tony Kemp (2b, MLB/AAA), Tyler White (3b, MLB/AAA), Colin Moran (3b, MLB/AAA), Derek Fisher (cf, MLB/AAA) and Dean Deetz (starter, AA).  A couple of years away, Jake Rogers (c, A+/A), Rodrigo Ayaraza (2b, A), Yordan Alvarez (lf, A+/A), Yoanys Quiala (starter, A+), Franklin Perez (starter, A+), Alex Winkleman (starter, A+) and Kevin Hill (reliever, A+).

Third:  Minnesota (3.0).  An organization on the rise.  Yes, challenges exist in the development of second basemen and right fielders, but overall improvement is notable and soon to arrive in Minneapolis/St. Paul.  Especially deep is catching, first, third and both kinds of pitching.

The Twins’ pitching development rivals both the NYY and Tampa (high praise).  Seven of the top ten starting prospects are AA and up while all ten of relievers are AA and up.  Deep is good.

2018 Help:  Mitch Garver (c, MLB/AAA), Carlos Paulino (c, AA), Jonathan Rodriguez (1b, AA), Leonardo Reginatto (3b, AAA), Zach Granite (cf, MLB/AAA and another cool name), Edgar Corcino (rf, AA with no one behind him except cold wind), Nik Turley (starter, MLB/AAA), Jose Berrios (starter, MLB/AAA), Drew Rucinski (relief, MLB/AAA), Alex Wimmers (relief, MLB/AAA), Alan Busenitz (relief, MLB/AAA), Nick Anderson (relief, AA/A+) and Mason Melotakis (relief, AA).  2019 arrivals, Chris Paul (3b, A+) and Max Murphy (cf, A+).

Fourth (tie):  Cleveland (2.7).  Catching, third and center (best depth in the A.L.) saved the 2-9 rankings.  The remainder are vacant to sparse in candidates.

Pitching development is almost in league with the Twins.  Almost.  Starting depth shows six of the top ten in AA and up.  Relief is stronger with all top ten prospects AA and up.

2018 Help:  Francisco Mejia (c, MLB, AA.  Skipped AAA), Yandy Diaz (3b, MLB/AAA.  I  can already hear Cleveland fans yelling obscenities at me.  My question is, does Mr. Diaz replace Jose Ramirez?  I think not.  Plus, Mr. Diaz played two-thirds of his 2017 season at AAA.  Not so obvious), Ryan Merritt (starter, MLB/AAA), Thomas Pannone (starter, AA/A+), Julian Merryweather (starter, AA) and Tyler Olson (reliever, MLB/AAA).  Soon to arrive post-2018, Martin Cervenka (c, A+), Yonathan Mendoza (3b, A+), Mitch Longo (rf, A) and Aaron Civale (starter, A+).

Fourth (tie):  Detroit (2.7).  Most potential help is 2+ years away, less pitching which offers immediate help, thus the fourth place tie.

2018 Help:  Dominic Ficociello (1b, AA), Matt Boyd (starter, MLB/AAA), Artie Lewicki (starter, MLB/AAA/AA) and Jeff Ferrell (reliever, MLB/AAA).  Two plus years away, Blaise Salter (1b, A), Will Maddox (2b, A+), Dustin Frailey (lf, A+), Jake Robson (rf, A+/A), Beau Burrows (starter, A+), Joshua Tucker (starter, A+) and Austin Sodders (starter, A+).

Fourth (tie):  Kansas City (2.7).  Enough help waiting at AAA at the 2-9 spots to notice, yet not everyone has impact status.  Mighty thin at first, short and third, especially after the AAA level.

Starting pitching is average while relief is trending well (seven of the top ten relievers are AAA and AA).

2018 Help:  Cam Gallagher (c, MLB/AAA), Frank Schwindel (1b, AAA/AA), Raul Mondesi (ss, MLB/AAA), Logan Moon (lf, AAA), Jorge Bonifacio (rf, MLB/AAA), Elier Hernandez (rf, AA/A+), Jakob Junis (starter, MLB/AAA), Miguel Almonte (starter, MLB/AA.  No AAA in 2017.  Beware the rush job), Kevin Lenik (reliever, AAA) and Richard Lovelady (reliever, AA/A+).  A few years away, Chris DiVito (1b, A), John Brontsema (2b, A+/A), Vance Vizcaino (lf, A) and Gerson Garbito (starter, A).

Fifth (tie):  Toronto (2.6).  Pitching saved a worse rating.  Most of the 2-9 talent is A+ and A ball.

2018 Help:  Danny Jansen (c, AAA/AA/A+.  Yes, he hits and hits well, but has no toss ability.  A dh in waiting), Anthony Alford (cf, AAA/AA), Nick Tepesch (starter, MLB/AAA.  Nick is 28 years old.  Time to prove his ability), Chris Rowley (starter, MLB/AAA/AA), Ryan Borucki (starter, AA/A+), Andrew Case (reliever, AA/A+) and Carlos Ramirez (reliever, MLB/AAA/AA).  2019 or 2020 help, Vladimir Guerrero (3b, A+/A), Bo Bichette (ss, A+/A) and Bradley Jones (cf, A).

Fifth (tie):  White Sox (2.6).  2-9 spots feature talent or none.  Second, center and left hold the most hope.  First, short and left need a lot of help.

Speaking of needing help, may I present the White Sox woeful attempt to develop starting pitching.  Five of their top ten starters pitched in A+ ball during 2017.  Relief pitching did rate above average, thus saving the entire staff from carnage.

2018 Help:  Rob Brantley (c, MLB/AAA and his 47% toss rate), Jake Peter (2b, AAA/AA), Eloy Jimenez (rf, AA/A+.  He can play) and Ian Hamilton (reliever, A+).

Fifth (tie):  Seattle (2.6).  Six prospects ready in two positions (center and right).  Other than that, not much is immediately ready for 2017.

Starting pitching is two sizable steps above relief pitching.  All ten rated starters are AA and above.  Relief featured 3 A ball pitchers.  Not good.

2018 Help:  Taylor Motter (ss, MLB/AAA), Tyler Smith (ss, MLB/AAA), Braden Bishop (cf, AA/A+.  Talent galore), Ian Miller (cf, AA), Boog Powell (rf, MLB/AAA), Ben Gamel (rf, MLB/AAA), Kyle Waldrop (rf, MLB/AAA/AA), Ryan Weber (starter, MLB/AAA), Emilio Pagan (reliever, MLB/AAA) and Jonathan Aro (reliever, MLB/AAA).  2019-ish help, Chris Mariscal (2b, A+), Eric Filia (rf, A+), Seth Elledge (reliever, A).

Sixth:  Boston (2.5).  Too much rated talent at A+ and A levels in 2017.  A shake out at AA is needed during 2018.

2018 Help:  Danny Mars (lf, AA) and Bobby Poyner (reliever, AA/A+).  Help down the road, Conrad Gregor (1b, A+), Michael Chavis (3b, A+ and the best third base prospect since Wade “Chicken” Boggs), Trevor Kelley (reliever, A+).

Seventh:  Texas (1.7).  Below average ratings at short (one guy), third (one guy), center (one guy) and right (two guys both at A+ ball).  Average ratings at first, second and left.  Boo.  Starting and relief pitching barely rated average.

2018 Help:  Brett Nichols (c, MLB/AAA.  A man with a future), Nick Martinez (starter, MLB/AAA.  Time to stay in Arlington, Nick), Tyler Davis (starter, AA.  Do not rush him, and you may have a gem), James Dykstra (starter, AA) and Ricardo Rodriguez (reliever, MLB/AA/A+.  Skipped AAA).  Help on a distant horizon, Carlos Garay (1b, A+/A), Yanio Perez (1b, A), Brallan Perez (2b, A) and Eduardo Pinto (rf, A+).

 

 

The Dodgers/Braves deal did little for me.  Matt Kemp returns to his former team.  His former team that he despises.  His former team that has no position available or need for him.  Perfect sense.  Especially given Mr. Kemp’s long-established club house demeanor (less than pleasant in light of little playing time) and tendency to phone-in effort after the 81st game of the season.  As for the Braves, they designate Adrian Gonzalez for assignment hours after acquiring him, aka, baseball human rights.  Adrian is now free to dh in peace in the A.L.  Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy form the back-end of the Braves starting staff.  Given recent history, if the two combine for 30 starts, well done Atlanta.  Charlie Culberson will play a little of this and a bit of that.

The Cubs improve their bullpen with the signings of Steve Cishek (might he challenge for the closer role?  Recall his save totals of 34, 39 and 25 for the 2013, 2014 and 2016 seasons) and Brandon Morrow (his bb per 9 has plummeted since 2015) while the starting staff gets a bump with Drew Smyly whose arm should be most fresh given his lack of work in 2015 and 2016 (19 starts combined).  Addressing the acquisition of Tyler Chatwood . . . why?

San Diego reacquired Chase Headley to access Bryan Mitchell.  I do not understand the fascination with pitchers who walk 4 batters per 9 (Mr. Mitchell’s primary achievement in 48 games in the Bronx) with strikeout ability.  The walks outweigh strikeouts.  Mr. Headley has no place in San Diego’s long-term plan.  I expect a trade prior to Opening Day.  Good luck to Jabari Blash in NYC.  At the age of 27, his time has arrived for good or for bad.

The Padres ridding themselves of Ryan “Swing and a Miss” Schimpf for a productive minor leaguer (Deion Tansel) was more than expected.

The Padres and Phillies combined for the common good.  Freddy Glavis, less 2015, puts up stellar defensive numbers.  However, he strikes out far too often and abhors the almighty walk.  The Phils did well in choosing Enyel De Los Santos (finished 2017 in AA ball and has posted solid starter numbers his entire minor league career) who may well pitch in Philly during August, 2018.

Continuing with the Phillies, signing Carlos Santana improves much about the Phillies.  Mr. Santana is a guaranteed 25/85 with his bat and plays a ballet first base that few appreciate (though the Phillies’ infielders will).  What this means for Rhys Hopkins is a permanent transfer to left field.  The addition of Pat Neshek (lifetime 2.75 era and 1.02 whip) is sorely needed in the bullpen.

The Angels dramatically improve their infield defense (and offense) with the Ian Kinsler trade and Zac Cozart signing.  Mr. Kinsler (a potential rent given 2018 is the final year of his contract) remains a competent defensive second baseman at the age of 35 and will provide the Angels with offensive production from that position for the first time since Howie Kendrick in 2014.  Of the two minor leaguers traded to Detroit, Troy Montgomery (cf, left-handed batter, AA in 2017) has the best chance to play in Detroit by 2019.  Returning to Zac Cozart, last year was the almighty “breakout year”.  He moves to third base to take the place of Yunel “Kick” Escobar whose 31 errors during his time in Anaheim was a glaring weakness and point of pique with Angel pitchers.

Houston signing Joe Smith and Hector Rondon is the baseball equivalent of Warren Buffett winning $1,000 on a lotto scratcher.  Well done, Astros.

Michael Pineda signing with the Twins is perhaps the small-town tonic (as compared to the bright lights of NYC) that may finally help him realize his potential.  If nothing else, the Twins now have a solid #4 or #5 starter.

Brian Cashman should be arrested for Grand Theft Player.  He stole Giancarlo Stanton.  The Yankees offer equates with getting a yacht for two fishing nets and the old guy at the end of the pier who fishes on Thursdays.  Mr. Stanton makes a boom-boom lineup a triple boom lineup.  As for those chosen by Miami, oy vey!  And not a good oy vey!  So many mavens are quick to point out that Jose Devers is Rafael Devers brother.  Who cares?  Jose Devers is 18 and has played a total of 53 games in rookie ball!  An insane choice by the Fish.  But wait!  There’s more bad decision-making by the Fish!  They choose Jorge Guzman who has pitched 5 seasons of minor league ball . . . 4 of which were in rookie ball!  Why does the phrase “running to stand still” enter my mind?  Finally, Starlin Castro, who is getting better with his glove, lands in Miami.

Then, Miami trades Marcel Ozuna.  Granted, Mr. Ozuna must now define himself without the presence of Mr. Stanton in the lineup.  Will Mr. Ozuna be George Foster, II or become Marcel Ozuna, I?  Zac Gallen was a smart choice by the Fish (I can be even-handed).  He finished year 2 in minor league ball in 2017.  He began in rookie ball, skipped both A- and A ball, and finished this year at the AAA level.  He is a legitimate candidate to pitch in Miami during 2018.  As for the other two choices, the Fish return to suspect choices.  Sandy Alcantara was a bb problem and Daniel Castano finished last year in A- ball.  Too soon to say.

Cardinal management is to be applauded for arranging Scott Piscotty’s trade to Oakland to be near his ailing mother.  Mr. Piscotty received full-time work in St. Louis during the 2016 year and offered his best year.  He will receive plenty of at-bats in 2018 on behalf of the A’s.  The Cards receive Max Schrock who is no more than a year away from the Show.  He is an exceptional shortstop (only 23 kicks in 239 games) and skilled with his bat (cumulative minor league numbers of .324/.372) and all of 23 years old.

Sadly, we wait a few more months to see how all the above pans out.