Archive for July, 2017

2017 Preview of SDSU Aztec Football

Posted: July 31, 2017 in Uncategorized
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Can we top 2016’s 11-3 (especially that dominating Las Vegas Bowl win over Houston)?

Probably not.  But, we will be the best team in the west division of the Mountain West despite having lost a substantial amount of defensive talent and face the always challenging task of replacing starting offensive linemen.

Offense

Let us begin with the aforementioned offensive line.  Antonio Rosales (sr., right guard), Ryan Pope (jr., right tackle) and Nick Gerhard (so., center) do bring experience.  And, yes, since the experience entering summer (I struggle to use the common term “fall” since August in San Diego is nothing like “fall”) camp is found on the right side, look for most of the offensive action to at least begin to the right side of scrimmage.  The left side is another story.  Tyler Roemer (redshirt fr.) and Keith Ismael (redshirt fr.) are the favorites to start at left tackle and left guard respectively.  The struggle for offensive line coach Mike Schmidt lies in teaching Mr. Roemer and Mr. Ishmael to embrace the radical change in game speed they are soon to receive.  I hope UC Davis is a perfect introduction to the change from practice pace to game pace.  However, Arizona State and Stanford will offer a true, and hopefully not too painful, introduction to the role of starting offensive linemen in division one football.  Joe Salcedo, returning from a missed 2016, currently shows as #3 on the depth chart at right tackle, may move to the other side of the line to provide experience.  What is both blessing and curse is of the fifteen players listed on the post-spring offensive line depth chart, seven are redshirt freshmen or true freshmen.  The blessing is a freshman starter is likely a four-year starter.  The curse lies in the learning.

The tight end position will be a position of strength.  David Wells (sr.) starts and will pair with a combination of Parker Houston (so.), Kahale Warring (so) and Darryl Richardson (sr.),

Mikah Holder and Quest Truxton return as starting seniors at the two wide receiver slots.  Mr. Holder offers the curious yet promising 2016 line of a mere 27 catches coupled with an eye-popping 21.5 yards per catch.  Last year’s game average of 44.7 yards hopefully doubles this year.  Mr. Truxton offers glue for hands and will enjoy most of the short routes.  Fred Trevillon is the only other experienced wide receiver on the depth chart.  Much like the offensive line, this group is heavy to freshmen and redshirt freshmen (four of the listed ten).  However, given the intensity of coach Hunkie Cooper, effort will never be a concern.

Rashaad’s Penny’s moment in the sun as the primary running back has at last arrived.  Watching Mr. Penny do the “excuse me, pardon me” through a group of defenders is a delight.  Given last year’s success (1,018 yards and 7.5 ypc) as the #2 running back, he may well surprise the unprepared.  I expect Mr. Penny to average well over 100 yards per game.  Juwan Washington (so.) ran for 490 yards (8.0 ypc) as the #3 running back and invites the obvious comparison to Donnel Pumphrey given size and ferocity.  This will be his year-in-waiting as the #2 back.  Chad Woolsey (so.), Tyler Wormhoudt (sr.) and Chase Jasmin (redshirt fr.) will compete for the waning minutes of the fourth quarter.

When Nick Bawden played quarterback, I would wince.  When Nick Bawden plays fullback, I smile.  Mr. Bawden is a man who enjoys contact.  He also can catch a football coming out of the backfield.  Isaac Lessard (so.) will be the #2 fullback and brings game experience.

Most quarterbacks who have a 61% completion ratio and 20 touchdowns compared to a measly 6 interceptions usually generate more than 2,000 yards, but Christian Chapman (jr.) fell 6 yards shy.  If he can keep the 5:2 td/pick ratio, 2017 should be a very productive year.  Offensive coordinator Jeff Horton and quarterbacks coach Blaine Morgan will encourage Mr. Chapman to stretch the field especially given Mikah Holder’s ability to depart quickly with football in hand.  Ryan Agnew (so.) and Chris Laviano (sr. transfer) provide back up.

John Barron (jr.) returns from an impressive 2016 performance (21/23 field goals).   If and when he misses a three-point opportunity, I’ll be stunned.  Color me spoiled.

Defense

Noble Hall (jr.) and Dakota Turner (sr.) will start at the defensive end spots while Sergio Phillips (sr.) moves to the nose guard/lone defensive tackle position.  This trio brings experience and a total of 108 tackles from 2016.  However, the second and third guys on the depth chart do not bring much game time exposure.  The front three is the one place where injury could wreak havoc on the remaining eight.

Ryan Dunn (sr.), Jay Henderson (sr.) and Ronley Lakalaka (jr) bring the same game time smarts to the linebacker spot as present at the defensive line.  Tyler Morris (sr.), Randy Ricks (sr.), Kyahva Trezino (so.) and Troy Cassidy (so.) make for a deep and talented group.

The back five complete a defense that benefits from prior success.  Ron Smith (so.), Trenton Thompson (so.), Parker Baldwin (jr.), Trey Lomax (sr.) and Kameron Kelly (sr.) will make opposing quarterbacks sweaty, clammy and uncomfortable.  Mr. Kelly, Mr. Smith and Mr. Baldwin shared 10 interceptions last year.  Increasing that number in 2017 is to be expected.  Kyree Woods (so.), Israel Cabrera (so.), Dwayne Parchment (so.) and Jeff Clay (so.) are capable substitutes.

Brandon Heicklen (so.) is a welcome late addition as punter.  He boomed the ball at Santa Monica C.C. two years ago averaging almost 44 yards per punt.  Last year he red shirted to “get better”.  Here’s to 45 yards per punt.

Schedule Results

Non-conference worst case is 2-2 with wins over UC Davis and Northern Illinois (both home games).  The Arizona State game is, thankfully, at night, so heat stroke becomes less likely.  Beating the Sun Devils is more likely than upsetting Stanford (truly a good football team and program).  Best case is 3-1.

The MWC schedule begins with Air Force at Colorado Springs in between the Stanford and Northern Illinois games.  Arriving unprepared to play Air Force is a sure loss.  Arrive prepared.  At UNLV is a win, though UNLV is much improved.  Boise returns to the Aztec schedule.  Playing Boise at the Q will be the game of the year.  Fresno State follows with a brand new coaching staff and defense that gave up 31 points per game last year.  At Hawaii follows.  Much like UNLV, Hawaii is a much better football team than two years ago.  Nonetheless, another SDSU win.  San Jose State at San Jose is another Aztec win featuring a new Spartan coaching staff.  Speaking of new coaching staffs, Nevada visits the Q following the first bye week for SDSU.  New Mexico arrives on November 24th to end MWC play.  Best MWC case 7-1.  Worst case 5-3.

Look forward to another MWC championship game, bowl game, exceptional football and larger crowds at the Q.

 

 

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MLB Trades to Date (7/20/17)

Posted: July 20, 2017 in Uncategorized
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With the avalanche of trade activity in front, now is a good time to summarize the handful of trades over the last few days.

The Jose Quitana deal was all Cubs.  Do not underestimate Theo Epstein.  Mr. Quintana struggled this year without the company of Chris Sale, but who wouldn’t?  Lefty starters are wonderful.  Especially the type that throw a minimum of 200+ innings the last four years.  In return the White Sox went two for four.  The two are Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez.  Mr. Cease has a three-year total of 2.54 era and 1.20 whip.  He is bound for a promotion to A+ ball and more than likely wears a White Sox uniform in 2020.  Mr Jimenez has power (32 homers, 179 rbi in four years of play), plus he hits for average .293/.340.  He is due to play AA ball before the end of the year.  The other two, Bryant Flete and Matt Rose, are inconsistent at best.

Why the Yankees chose Garrett Cooper given the plethora of quality first basemen (Tyler Austin, Billy Fleming and Chris Gittens) in their system is a question without answer.  Mr. Cooper is a 26-year-old AAA first baseman who couldn’t land a job in Milwaukee with very little competition within the Brewers development system.  Commentators who are quick to praise his power numbers must pause for the effect of playing baseball in Colorado Springs, Colorado . . . elevation 6,035 feet.  Milwaukee receives Tyler Webb who rated as the Yankees #4 reliever in system in my 2016 review.  Mr. Webb is of the left-handed variety and should receive plenty of opportunity in Milwaukee.  Advantage Brewers.

Why did Billy Beane aim the equivalent of a cannon at his bullpen by trading Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nationals or any other team for that matter?  The A’s go from bad to worse.  The Nats strengthen their bullpen.  Both Mr. Doolittle and Mr. Madson are former closers.  Both can log innings.  Neither complains about their respective relief role.  Of the three players obtained by Oakland, Jesus Lazardo is 19 and in rookie ball.   Do explain the long-term forecasting involved in choosing a teenager in rookie ball?  Sheldon Neuse is in year two and playing A ball.  He does show hints of power (10/62 and 24 doubles in total).  Blake Treinen hopes to regain his form from 2014 to 2016  since this year was a disaster (5.73/1.62).  Advantage Nationals.

Returning to Brian Cashman’s brain function, at least the Todd Frazier deal is passable, but I do not find completely sensible the resulting move of Chase Headley to first so that Mr. Frazier can play a suspect third.  Mr. Frazier does offer the chance of dingers almost every at bat, but his obp is dreadful.  However, the NYY bullpen receives a healthy dose of help with David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle.  Mr. Robertson has closed the last four years and does provide options if Aroldis Chapman continues to struggle with his control and Joe Girardi’s confidence.  Mr. Kahnle does suffer from the good year/bad year complex, but 2017 is currently a good year.  The White Sox did well in return.  Yes, Tyler Clippard struggled of late, but his lifetime numbers are solid.  Why baseball mavens rate Blake Rutherford highly is without merit.  Mr. Rutherford is only in A ball and has a difficult journey in front of him.  If he continues to produce in AA, then we can talk.  Ian Clarkin and Tito Polo were both good choices.  Mr. Clarkin is a lefty starter with cumulative era and whip of 3.20/1.29.  Year four of development and in A+ ball is ideal progression.  Mr. Polo has speed (157 stolen bases total) and is in AA ball.  He is 22 and ready for a September call to Chicago.  Advantage NYY (with a nod to of approval to the White Sox).

J.D. Martinez (suffers a hand injury during his first game with the Snakes) is an underrated ball player.  All of 29 and hitting above .300 three of his last four years, he is a productive ball player.  Detroit made a strange choice in return.  All three minor leaguers (Dawel Lugo, Serio Alcantara, and Jose King) are 2b/ss.  None of the three post exceptional offensive numbers.  Mr. King is in rookie ball.  Mr. Alacantara bounces around A- to A+ ball without effect.  Mr. Lugo is in AA ball and strikes out far too often.  I imagine this is a panic move to develop middle infield talent given the imminent departure of Ian Kinsler and likely departure of Jose Iglesias.  Advantage Arizona.

 

 

 

2017 Mountain West Conference Football Prediction, Observation and Comment

Posted: July 18, 2017 in Uncategorized
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Mountain Division

First:  Boise State

No kidding?  May as well predict heat during August.

Brett Rypien returns as the starting quarterback.  Mr. Rypien is talented beyond his years and experience.  Boise loses their top rusher from 2016, but return the next four.  Alexander Mattison looks to be the best of the lot.  Granted, Boise will throw, but the ground game is ready and deep.  Speaking of throwing, the Broncos lose their #1 and #3 receivers, but return four receivers with double-digit receptions.  Cedrick Wilson and Chaz Anderson should get most of the downfield looks from Mr. Rypien.  Boise’s offense averaged almost 475 yards per game.  Do not expect much change this year.

Defensively, an impressive 17 of the 20 top tacklers return.  Ben Weaver (#1 tackler) and Darren Lee (3# tackler) lead an experienced group.

Second:  Colorado State

The difference between the Rams, Wyoming and Air Force is thin.  Injury, last-minute mistakes and freaky weather (we are discussing the Mountain Division of the MWC.  After the first week in October, most anything can fall from the sky) may well fall to the wayward side of talent in deciding second place.

Nick Stevens improved tremendously last year.  19 touchdowns coupled with only 5 interceptions.  Well done.  CSU also returns their #2 quarterback as well which lends comfort to a worst case scenario.   The Rams return their top two rushers in the formidable duo of Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews.   2016’s top two receivers, Michael Gallup and Olabisi Johnson, will help Mr. Stevens stretch the field.  When clicking, Colorado State will put points galore on the board.  Opponents preparing for this offense will find plenty of challenge.

Can CSU’s defense keep a fourth quarter lead in 2017?  14 of the 20 top tacklers return that includes 8 of the top 10.  The Rams defense gave up 30.1 points per game last year.  If they do no worse in 2017, second place becomes more likely.

Third:  Wyoming

The Cowboys surprised everybody in 2016.  Josh Allen was the conference’s next best quarterback after Brett Rypien.  If Mr. Allen reduces last year’s 15 interceptions to at least 9 in 2017, he may post the best conference qb numbers.  Sadly, Wyoming loses their top three receivers from 2016.  C.J. Johnson is the only returning receiver with substantial experience.  This poses a potential early season problem for the Cowboys offense and Mr. Allen.  If the new group of receivers runs routes and catches the football, no problem.  If not, Wyoming fans may as well wear a parka on a seventy degree day to experience Mr. Allen’s discomfort.  Shaun Wick will lead the running game.  Much like the receivers, Mr. Wick’s colleagues need to be effective or what should be an explosive offense will fall far shy of last year’s 436 yards per game.

8 of the top 10 tacklers return (17 of the top 20 overall).  Yet, last year’s group gave up more yards (453) per game than their offense generated.  Ouch.

Fourth:  Air Force

A challenging year awaits the Falcons.  They begin the 2017 season losing 4 of their top 6 rushers, starting quarterback and top receiver from last year.  The good news is Arion Worthman brings 2016 experience to the quarterback position along with Tim McVey leading the usual endless running game (the top six rushers for Air Force had a combined 716 carries in 2016).  Air Force fans who might be quick to point out the #2, #3 and #4 receivers return will be reminded to examine their respective catches of 8, 8 and 6.  Regardless, Air Force runs the ball first and foremost.  Charge.

If you thought the offense faced a challenge, the defense will need to replenish the troops, so to speak, quickly.  Only 6 of the top 20 tacklers return.  Retaining last year’s stingy 26 points per game and measly 3.4 yards per rush is almost impossible.

Fifth:  New Mexico

Much of the 2016 offense returns.  Lamar Jordan should get the majority of qb reps this year.  The Lobos lose their #1 rusher from 2016, but return #2 through #5.  Tyrone Owens averaged a stunning 8 ypc last year while Diquon Woodhouse averaged 8.6 ypc on only 27 rushes.  Almost as much depth at the receiver spot returns with the #1 (Q Drennan and his eye-popping 25.8 ypc), #3 and #4 receivers returning.  At the very least, Mr. Jordan will have options.

The UNM defense faces a reality almost as difficult as Air Force.  Only 10 of the top 20 tacklers return.  This includes a loss of 8 of the first 10.  Will the Lobos defense hold onto single digit leads with two minutes remaining?  Will they keep the opposition under 400 yards per game as last year?  Lots of nail-biting awaits.

Sixth:  Utah State

Lackluster describes the 2016 USU season.  At times disinterest seemed to apply as well.  Yawn.  Damn, this is only the third quarter?

Kent Myers returns as the staring qb.  How a qb throws for almost 2,400 yards, yet no more than 10 touchdowns is a long explanation.  Tony Lindsey returns as last year’s #1 rusher.  Much like Mr. Myers, Mr. Lindsey averaged 5.2 ypc, but a paltry game average of 63.6 yards.  How?  Ron’quavion Tarver and Rayshad Lewis should repeat as the #1 and #2 receivers in 2017.

The defense loses 4 of their top 5 tacklers from 2016 and return only 11 of the top 20. Utah State offered the opposition almost 30 points per game last year.  This year will be close to 35.  I sense a coaching staff change.

West Division

First:  San Diego State

If the rest of the West was stronger, SDSU finishing first would be less likely especially given the new faces on defense, but the rest of the West offers little resistance.

Christian Chapman returns as the starting qb.  20 touchdowns and only 6 picks should generate more than 1,994 yards.  Maybe this year.  Donnel Pumphrey is now in Philly.  Rashaad Penny moves to the #1 back with Juwan Washington assuming the supporting role.  Returning receivers Mikah Holder and Quest Truxton along with tight end David Wells must improve on last year’s efforts or maintaining last year’s 35 points per game will be unlikely.

The defense loses 5 of the top 10 tacklers.  Only 11 of the top 20 return.  But, Rocky Long is not only one of the best head coaches in the NCAA, but also one of the best defensive coordinators, thus a brief learning curve awaits the newbies.

Second:  Hawaii

I’m not joking.  The Rainbow is shining bright.  Head coach Nick Rolovich and staff created much improvement during 2016.  Rainbow fans have a reason to once again watch football.

Dru Brown returns as the starting quarterback.  He threw for almost 2,500 yards last year.  While Hawaii loses their #1 (and #4) receiver from last  year, John Ursua and Dylan Collie return for more catches than last year.  Diocemy Saint Juste, last year’s #1 rusher, leads an otherwise inexperienced rushing crew.  But, whereas Air Force runs when in doubt, Hawaii will take to the air.  Points will be scored.

Points will also be scored against the Rainbow defense.  Opposing teams averaged 462 yards during 2016.  2017 features only 12 of the top 20 tacklers returning.  Losing 5 of the top 10 will pose a challenge.

Third:  San Jose State

New coaching staffs usually indicate a year of clumsy learning, disappointment and doubt.  Welcome to 2017, Spartans.

Enough returns on the offense to create the hope that points can be scored.  Josh Love, last year’s #2 qb, is most likely this year’s starting qb.  Malik Roberson and Zamore Zigler both averaged over 5 ypc last year.  Justin Holmes and Tre Hartley were 2016’s #2 and #3 receivers.  They provide Mr. Love with experienced targets.

13 of the top 20 tacklers return.  Last year the Spartans gave up 433 yards per game and 35 points.  The good news is, improvement is possible.

Fourth:  UNLV

If they had more returning defensive players, I would have placed the Rebels third.  Alas, not so.

Tony Sanchez has done a lot in little time as head coach.  A bad case of unrealistic expectations is ill-advised on behalf of alumni and administration.  Coach Sanchez is “the guy”.  Remain patient.

Johnny Stanton and Kurt Palandech shared the starting qb spot last year and may well do so again this year.  Charles Williams and Lexington Thomas return as a powerful running duo.  4 of their top 5 receivers return for 2017 including Devonte Boyd who averaged almost 75 ypg.

Last year UNLV’s defense gave up 430 ypg.  This year may they be so lucky.  They lose their top 6 tacklers (and 7 of the top 8) from 2016.  Ouch.  Only 8 of the top 20 return.  Good luck during the fourth quarter.

Fifth:  Nevada

Have I mentioned my aversion to new coaching staffs?

Ty Gangli gets the starting qb job in 2017.  James Butler and Jaxson Kincaide were last year’s top two rushers and should repeat as such this year.  Wyatt Demps leads an inexperienced receiving corps.  This group must improve as the season progresses or Mr. Gangli’s 8 td and 6 picks will not improve in 2017.

The good news for Wolfpack fans is 8 of the top 10 tacklers return and 15 of the top 20.  The 456 ypg allowed should lessen this year.  As should the 6.1 yards per rush and 13.4 yards per catch.

Sixth:  Fresno State

The usual caution about the new coaching staff and begin.

A lot returns from 2016.  The uncomfortable fact of not quite 18 points per game returns as well.  Chason Virgil barely averaged a 51% completion rate last year.  Much needs to improve.  Dontel James averaged less than 3.5 ypc last year.  Much needs to improve.  Mr. Virgil will have 3 of his top 4 receivers return as well.  Plainly speaking, if this group could not average 20 points per game last year, why this year?

The top 2 tacklers and 3 of the top 5 do not return.  But, 13 of the top 20 do return.  This group was part of last year’s 31 points allowed per game.  Tough times in Fresno.