2015 San Diego State Aztecs Football Preview

Posted: August 19, 2015 in Uncategorized
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Let’s begin on the offensive side of the ball.

QB:  As “fall” (honestly, any school west of the Rockies should choose a summer or pre-season description rather than any reference to autumn) camp concludes, Maxwell Smith will be named the starting quarterback.  Mr. Smith started for bad Kentucky teams against dauntingly good SEC (the AAA of the NFL) teams.  That experience is beyond valuable.  If Mr. Smith can limit mistakes and quickly grasp the offense of Jeff Horton, a flurry of offense is the result.  Backing Mr. Smith is Christian Chapman and the Oregon transfer Jake Rodrigues.  Thankfully, Nick Bawden is now a fullback.

RB:  The best running back in the MW returns.  Donnel Pumphrey has no peer.  Fine, I admit New Mexico, Wyoming, Fresno State and Colorado State all possess at least one quality running back, but none quite so talented as Mr. Pumphrey.  Chase Price (a human bowling ball seeking immediate contact with linebackers), the injured Marcus Stamp whose depth chart spot will go to Rashaad Penny followed by Pumphrey-sized freshman, Juwan Washington, make for a talented group of running backs.

FB:  Dakota Gordon is entering Chad Young territory.  No higher praise can be offered to any Aztec fullback.

WR:  A point of major weakness in 2014.  Poor route running.  Extreme lack of concentration.  No confidence.  Alas, 2015 Aztec receivers cannot be any worse.  I choose to anticipate renewed vigor and focus given the arrival of the new wide receivers coach, Hunkie Cooper (how can you not have confidence in a man named Hunkie?).  Lloyd Mills (moments of brilliance during 2014), Mikah Holder, Eric Judge and Chase Favreau head a list of credible receivers.  Unlike the Bob Toledo years, look for two, rather than three, receivers at the line of scrimmage.

TE:  All five on the depth chart are listed at 6’5″, thus Maxwell Smith should not have difficulty finding any of them downfield.  If Daniel Brunskill and David Wells each develop a pair of hands, this position could be the surprise of the offense.

OL:  Darrell Greene’s six game suspension puts the damper on three of five returning starters.  Now Nico Siragusa and Pearce Slater are the shining light of return.  Kwayde Miller, Arthur Flores, Robert Craighead more than likely complete the starting five.  Austin Mass probably backs Mr. Flores at the center spot.  Joe Salcedo (redshirt freshman) impresses o-line coach, Mike Schmidt.  This group allows for a successful start or a few games of adjustment as the season begins.

DL:  Jon Sanchez, Christian Heyward and Alex Barrett may be the best d-line in the West of the Mountain West.

LB:  Calvin Munson was the defensive surprise of 2014.  Expect no drop-off in 2015.  If, if, Jake Fely is healthy, he and Mr. Munson will provide and deliver a substantial amount of energy and hurt.  Choose from Jay Henderson, Devante Davis or Ryan Dunn as the other starter.

DB:  What is the greatest benefit of the return of J.J. Whitaker, Damontae Kazee, Malik Smith, Trey Lomax and Na’im McGee?  They all started in 2014.  This lends to a certain calm, satisfying sleep pattern on behalf of Rocky Long.  Coaching these five becomes more of a conversation than instruction.  A great depth rarely found on a college football team.  This group is the strength of the 3-3-5.  Anticipate much more blitzing than any year since Mr. Long arrived on the Mesa.

K:  Donny Hageman and his wonderfully accurate foot return.

P:  Tanner Blain or Joe Weilbacher.  You choose.

LS:  Jeff Overbaugh (and a guaranteed NFL draft selection).

Coaches:  Jeff Horton remains the running backs coach while assuming offensive coordinator duties.  He has edited Bob Toledo’s playbook.  Rather, removed dozens of pages.  Simplicity is the theme.  With a new starting quarterback, I second the idea.  Hunkie Cooper, granted, has zero collegiate experience, but he brings an energy and demand upon the wide receivers not seen in years.  Bobby Hauck, who was seemingly 100-2 at Montana as head coach, should strengthen the special teams.  I find smart of athletic director Jim Sterk to have two ex-head coaches on staff in Mr. Horton and Mr. Hauck.  Whenever Mr. Long decides to retire, in-house replacement may be a convenient and effective theme.  Blaine Morgan enters year one as SDSU quarterbacks coach.  As a former Air Force Cadet quarterback, anticipate Mr. Morgan grooming a feet-don’t-fail-me-now option when all else fails with Aztec quarterbacks.  Media folks love to swoon over Mr. Long’s unique 3-3-5 alignment, but without a quality defensive coaching staff, a 3-3-5 equals 0.  Coaches Lewis (d-line), Arnett (linebackers), White (cornerbacks) and Gonzales (safeties) deserve a great deal of credit and note on behalf of a superb 2014 defensive effort that was nationally ranked.  Look for even greater defensive heights in 2015.

2015 Schedule:  Beginning the season against USD is less than ideal, but a game is a game.  At Cal follows.  An immediate test to determine the real ability of the Aztec defense.  South Alabama is the second home game.  The Jags recruit kids thought to be a step below SEC ability.  This game must find a prepared Aztec squad or this is a not so surprising loss.  Penn State at Happy Valley follows.  I’m predicting an Aztec win (at last) over a legendary football program.  Fresno State (and their impressive band of alumni travelers) opens MWC play at the Q.  Two road games follow:  at Hawaii and at San Jose State.  The Aztecs return home for the always challenging Aggies of Utah State.  A Halloween game at Fort Collins may bring heavy snow, high winds or a pleasant evening.  Wyoming, at UNLV and Nevada finish the 2015 season.  Since two of three are at the Q, opportunity exists to right any prior disappointment.  Worst case:  7-5.  Best case:  10-2.

Final thoughts:  Will 2015 finally yield a win over a PAC-12 school (Cal) or nationally recognized legend (Penn State)?  Will Donnel Pumphrey rush for a minimum of 100 yards each game?  Is Jeff Horton’s offensive scheme simple enough or too simple?  Does an Aztec defense returning eight defensive starters smash opposing offenses or suffer from a case of overconfidence?  As always, stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

 

2015 Mountain West Conference Football Preview

Posted: August 18, 2015 in Uncategorized
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Mountain

1.  Boise State.  Nine offensive starters and eight defensive starters return.  Sure, they lose their starting quarterback and top two rushers, but Boise has been reloading for years (as opposed to rebuilding).  Shane Williams-Rhodes is the best offensive player in the MW.  Boise has the best offensive line in conference.  Why?  Because all five starters return.  Scott Huff, the offensive line coach, sleeps well.  If any improvement is needed, see the defense, but by no means is that side of the ball a true weakness.  Similar to finding a bit of dust on a clean car.

2.  Utah State.  If Chuckie Keeton stays healthy, a good year for the people of Logan, Utah.  If Chuckie is dinged, a long year for the people of Logan, Utah.  Losing Jo Jo Natson hurts.  With Mr. Natson, the Aggies would have made Boise a tad nervous regarding first place in the Mountain division.  Now, not so much.  LaJuan Hunt should see his 111 rushing attempts increase greatly in 2015.  So, too, will his average of 4.9 yards.  The same improvement will be seen from Hunter Sharp at the wide receiver spot.  A quality football player.  USU’s main challenge will be the defensive line.  Look for their talented linebackers to help in front and help often.

3.  Air Force.  The Cadets return four of their top five rushers.  Sure, they lose their starting quarterback, but this is Air Force on the ground.  Forget the irony.  Your head will explode.  Only four defensive starters return (one lineman, two linebackers and one defensive back).  Granted, brains go a long way, but the inexperience on the defensive side of the ball may be painful.  Air Force gave up 103 fourth quarter points last year.  That number will increase in 2015.  During close games, if Air Force has the ball in the final minute, be glad.  If not, cringe.

4.  University of New Mexico.  Two words:  Lamar Jordan.  This kid has the soul of Doug Flutie and the nerves of a sniper (probably inappropriate, but the best I could do.  The sniper reference, not Flutie).  Jhurell Pressley and Teriyon Gipson are the best one-two running back punch in the entire MWC.  The Lobos will score and score often in 2015.  The Lobos need to provide a much improved defensive effort in the third quarter (a stunning 133 points were allowed during those fifteen minutes in 2014.  Evidently, understanding defensive adjustments during halftime is optional).  This is a squad returning seven defensive starters that were part of a defense that allowed well over 6,000 total offensive yards last year.  The Lobos defense gave up 58 points twice and 60 points once last year.  Enough said.

5.  Colorado State:  Anytime a head coach of Jim McElwain’s ability leaves the field, so does my confidence.  Include the departure of Garrett Grayson, and the Rams have a significant challenge in 2015.  The return of Treyous Jarrells at running back is a place to begin.  Rashard Higgins (96 catches, 1,750 yards) and the almost as talented Joe Hansley and Xavier Williams hope to benefit from an occasional pass or two tossed their way.  Who will get the ball to that trio?  Nick Stevens?  Coleman Key?  Stay tuned.  Thankfully for the Fort Collins faithful, eight defensive starters return.  If Lamar Jordan wasn’t the UNM qb, I would place the Rams fourth in the Mountain division.  But, that’s not the case.

6.  Wyoming.  Wyoming, where the wind blows and so, too, does hope.  Only five offensive and four (ouch) defensive starters return (including the loss of six of their top ten tacklers).  Losing their starting quarterback and top two receivers adds to the challenge.  However, Brian Hill and Shaun Wick will see plenty of action from the offensive backfield.  Last year, they combined for 271 rushing attempts.  Look for 300+ in 2015.  If the Cowboys can repeat last year’s home record of 3-3, rejoice Laramie, rejoice.  On behalf of Coach Craig Bohl and staff (most of whom followed Mr. Bohl from North Dakota State University), this group of coaches provide the best chance for the Cowboys to return to the heady days of Joe Tiller.

West

1.  San Diego State:  Last year’s finish of 7-6/5-3 including a bowl game loss was disappointing . . . which is evidence of just how far Aztec football has come.  Donnel Pumphrey is the best running back in the MW, bar none.  The other top two SDSU rushers, Chase Price and Dakota Gordon, also return.  The receiving corps in 2104 was a massive disappointment.  Given a new offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach, look for renewed spirit and result.  Eight defensive starters return from the best MW defensive squad in 2014.  Not a single defensive back from the 2014 team leaves.  Can an Aztec defense that allowed a paltry 192 passing yards per game yield even less in 2015?  Yep.

2.  San Jose State.  Call me crazy.  Call me nut job.  The Spartans have a fine coaching staff (though, I find suspect the hiring of Al Borges as offensive coordinator) in year two of a massive overhaul.  The under-the-radar-who-is-this-guy Joe Gray at the qb spot provides the Spartans with one of the better MWC quarterbacks.  Mr. Gray, in eleven games, threw for better than 2,300 yards and had a completion rate of 63.6%.  Fair warning on behalf of Spartan defensive foes, their top three receivers return.  Tyler Ervin (5.6 yards per rush) and Brandon Monroe (4.3 yards per rush) offer quality rushing options.  On the other side of the ball, San Jose State loses six of their top ten tacklers and return only six starters.  The 2015 Spartan defensive challenge is to rebuild their linebacking unit.  SJSU defensive backs had better fill gaps quickly and get to know the opposing running backs.

3.  Fresno State.  Along with Colorado State, the Bulldogs suffer the most notable slip in the MWC during 2015.  They lose both their number one and two quarterbacks from 2014, all significant rushers, less their number one back (Marteze Waller) as well as their top three receivers.  Only six offensive starters return along with a paltry five defensive starters including only five of their top ten tacklers from 2014.  Continuing with the defensive concerns, last year Fresno State gave up 32.4 points per game.  That number increases in 2015.  Granted, Boise reloads, but Fresno must rebuild.  Any significant defensive injury or prolonged struggle at the quarterback spot may lead to a finish of less than third in the West.

4.  Nevada.  Losing Cody Fajardo will have the same effect that Colorado State will experience with the loss of Mr. Grayson.  Mr. Fajardo was also the Wolfpack’s leading rusher.   A great deal of Nevada offense has left the field.  Granted, Don Jackson (4.4 yards per rush) and James Butler (4.5 yards per rush) will see their participation increase greatly during 2015.  If the ‘pack can find somebody to throw the ball to Jerico Richardson (56 catches) and Hasaan Henderson (45 catches), perhaps 2015 may not be bleak.  Speaking of bleak, on the other side of the ball, only five defensive starters return.   Not a single starting defensive back returns.  Opposing quarterbacks may have much to smile about during Nevada games.  If the Wolfpack defense allows less than 30 points per game, enjoy the surprise.

5.  Hawaii.  The only reason I choose a Norm Chow coached team not to finish last is because UNLV hired a high school coach as head coach.  True to Mr. Chow’s demeanor, he retains his starting quarterback, Ikaika Woolsey, then immediately curries favor to the USC transfer, Max Wittek.  The top two wide receivers return along with two of the top three rushers.  With eight offensive starters, including the shunned Mr. Woolsey, this is Hawaii’s best Chow version.  Unfortunately, seven of their top-ten tacklers leave.  Six defensive starters return.  Smart money says 2014’s 26.8 points per game (second best in the West division) increases to counter balance an improved offense because Hawaii seems to suffer from a lack of luck.

6.  UNLV.  As mentioned above, the Rebels hired Tony Sanchez, a high school coach, as head coach.  Mr. Sanchez, brave soul, has five returnees on each side of the ball.  Starting quarterback Blake Decker returns as do three of the top four rushers (including Mr. Decker).  Devonte Boyd (65 catches) and Kendal Keys (12.9 yards per reception) offer receiving experience.  Six of the top seven tacklers return (they will be busy, very busy) in 2015.  Last year, the Rebels defense allowed 513.5 yards per game.  Perhaps they can be south of 500 yards allowed per game in 2015.  Perhaps.  Final note, all but one of the UNLV coaching staff enter their respective first year as coach at UNLV.  Could be a long, hot football season on the Strip.

2015 MLB Trading Season: Judgment, Scorn and Praise

Posted: July 31, 2015 in Uncategorized
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As a friend said in his best Lord of The Rings voice, “And so it begins.”

We begin with the Scott Kazmir deal.  Sure, Houston gets a lefty starter for the Dog Days.  Well done (so, too, the entire season to date).  Mr. Kazmir is strictly a rental as he walks into free agency at the end of the year.  The A’s acquire Jacob Nottingham, 20, catcher, first base, dh and currently enjoying the wind blown benefits of A+ ball in Lancaster, CA.  In 621 lifetime abs, he has 44 doubles, 20 dingers and 108 rbi along with a .352 obp.  His cumulative toss rate as a catcher is an impressive 37%.  Along for the ride into the Oakland system is Daniel Mengden.  Mr. Mengden is a righty starter, 22 and did not enjoy the Lancaster environs that benefited Mr. Nottingham, for the wind blows forever in Lancaster, especially for pitchers.  The most impressive statistic Mr.Mengden brings to Oakland’s A+ team is his 2.4 bb per 9 ip.  Downright stingy.  Well done on behalf of both Houston and Oakland.

Aramis Ramirez returning to Pittsburgh perhaps offers the chance to end at the beginning.  The homeruns don’t come as easy these days for Mr. Ramirez, but he is sorely needed in Pittsburgh given the injuries to Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer.  While the aforementioned long balls have been reduced, Mr. Ramirez’s glove has improved with age.  A mere 7 kicks in ’13, 12 in ’14 and 5 to date in ’15.  In exchange, the Brewers make the weird choice of Yonathan Barrios who was originally drafted as a third baseman/shortstop.  However, that journey ended with the 2012 season, as Mr. Barrios traveled to the bullpen to develop as a closer.  Said journey has not been easy as per his sky high 3.6 bb per 9 ip.  Not good.  Advantage, Pirates.

Conner Gillapsie to the Angels for cash is simply a move to allow Angels management to say, “Look!  A major league baseball player at third base!”  Next.

Steven Cishek to St. Louis is a quality move.  Mr. Cishek, prior to this year, had above average seasons (in ’13 he had 34 saves and in ’14 he saved 39 games).  This year, he participated well in the Miami debacle which is 2015.  Everything with Mr. Cishek went south of Miami.  However, if a pitcher is ever to find his former self, St. Louis is the place to do so.  In return, the Fish choose Kyle Barraclough, 25 in AA ball.  Mr. Barraclough suffers from promotion-itis, i.e., as soon as he arrives at the next level of minor league ball, struggle ensues for quite sometime, but he does recover.  Even in light of a cumulative 2.83/1.38 (which is a tad high for whip), not much excitement is generated.  Advantage, St. Louis.  No surprise.

Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson should provide at least some punch on behalf of Mets’ baserunners.  Sadly, Mr. Uribe is a downright liability at third.  In 37 games at third base for Atlanta, he has committed 6 errors.  Mr. Johnson has become a true utility man as he can play either infield corner or left field without committing harm.  As for those received from the Mets, Rob Whalen is the better of the two.  Mr. Whalen, currently in A+ ball, sports a cumulative record of 16-9 with a 2.43/1.08 era/whip in 226 innings pitched.  The other starting pitcher is John Gant.  Mr. Gant is struggling this year in AA ball (4.70/1.57 and an unforgivable 3.9 bb per 9 ip.   Yuck).  But, prior to this year, he did well at A+ and below.  Immediate advantage goes to the Mets while the long run advantage falls to the Braves.

The most interesting trade to date (7/27/15) is the Johnny Cueto deal for not one, not two, but three left-handed pitchers.  Mr. Cueto is getting better with age.  Since 2011, he has posted an era of less than 2.85.  His cumulative whip of 1.17 is equally impressive.  Also impressive is the fact that he is a free agent at season’s end.  If Mr. Cueto delivers in K.C., he will be a very rich man sometime this winter.  As for the three lefties acquired by the Reds, Brandon Finnegan most likely gets a look as a set-up man for the reminder of the season.  However, his 4.8 bb per 9 is a major concern.  John Lamb is in year two at AAA.  Raised the old fashioned way.  Mr. Lamb is a great candidate for an early August arrival in the Queen City as a number four or number five stater.  Let him receive his bumps and bruises, thus give him a chance to arrive in spring of next year as a viable candidate for the backend of the rotation.  Cody Reed dominated A+ ball earlier this year.  Now at AA, he is merely above average.  His cumulative 2.5 bb per 9 gives cause for hope a couple of years from now.  As with the Uribe/Johnson deal, both clubs win.  Special kudos to the Cincinnati scouts for identifying the above mentioned lefties.

At last, Troy Tulowitzki exits Colorado.  While most mavens focus on his bat, I love the glove.  A lifetime fielding percentage for a shortstop of .985 is a sight to behold..  Mr. Tulowitzki does has a well established pattern of healthy-hurt dating back to 2007, but when healthy, he is productive.  Plus, he belongs to Toronto through 2020.  As a substantial bonus, LaTroy Hawkins, oh, ageless wonder, also joins the Jays.  Granted, Mr. Hawkins will not log 80+ innings out of the bullpen anytime soon, but he brings a wealth of knowledge to settle a crumbling sixth inning or lessen damage during the seventh inning.  As for the four sent to the Rockies, Jose Reyes is past his prime and a definite defensive downgrade compared to Mr. Tulowitzki.  Mr. Reyes was one of the best during his days as a Met.  Rededication is required.  Miguel Castro has no business pitching in the major leagues, yet.  He skipped AA ball, had an awful time in AAA, so what do the Blue Jays do?  Promote him to Toronto.  Moronic.  Jeff Hoffman is quite a steal for Colorado.  Mr. Hoffman was the Jays #1 2015 draft selection.  Of course, where does Toronto place Mr. Hoffman to begin his development?  A+ ball.  Then, within the span of less than two months, he is promoted to AA.  Rush, rush.  That perilous path should stop within the Colorado organization.  Finally, Jesus Tinoco in A ball (where he belongs) is in year four of development.  A 20 year old with average numbers as a starter.  While bad player development is exposed in Toronto, the advantage is all Blue Jays.

Tyler Clippard makes the Mets bullpen a better place.  His lifetime era/whip of 2.87/1.09 overrides his sky high 3.7 bb per 9.  The 10 k’s per 9 helps as well.  On the other side, the A’s scouted wisely when selecting Casey Meisner.  20 years old, in his third year, currently at A+ he is trending well with a 2.83 era and 1.40 whip (he began the season in A ball with even better numbers).  I predict a 2017 arrival in Oakland.  Both squads do equally well.

The Royals add Ben Zobrist to their trade booty.  Mr. Zobrist (another rental given his free agency status at year’s end) brings a healthy lifetime .354 obp.  Between 2009-2014, he has logged 500 to 600+ ab each season.  A dirt dog.  A brief note to those of you who do not understand Billy Beane’s trades of Mr. Zobrist and Mr. Kazmir, understand that as of the first day of August, the A’s do not offer lockers to impending free agents.  Move, they must.  The two acquired in return are somewhat marginal.  Aaron Brooks is the best of the two.  Mr. Brooks is 25 and has enjoyed the last two seasons at AAA.  His cumulative minor league era is a disappointing 4.21, yet balanced with a stingy whip of 1.29.  The time has arrived for Mr. Brooks to discover if he should rent a place in Oakland.  The other pitcher is Sean Manaea, 23, split time between A+ and AA this season to no cheer.  A rough 3.8 bb per 9 is ignored due to his 10.9 k per 9.  I find the 3.8 a bit more telling.  Advantage goes to K.C.

Golf claps to Bill Stoneman.  Acquiring three outfielders to patrol left field while providing quality late inning help is above and beyond the capability of most g.m.’s and especially a part-time g.m.  Shane Victorino (for Josh Rutledge), David Murphy (for Eric Stamets.  Why did Cleveland scouts zero in on this guy?) and David DeJesus (for Eduar Lopez.  See the Cleveland comment and lay it at the feet of Tampa scouts).  All three gentlemen have post-season experience and the view of a veteran.  Advantage Angels.

The Nats counter the Mets Clippard move with the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon.  Love him, hate him, mimic him, the man can close.  Nick Pivetta is a typical bad choice by a badly run baseball team.  Nick Pivetta posted a 7.20 era and 1.87 whip in AA ball this year.  Oh yeah, and he topped off that sterling set of numbers with 5.4 bb per 9.  The Phillies are a horrible franchise.

A crazy day (7/30) with one remaining.

Toronto scores, again.  David Price improves the starting staff and then some.  Pure quality.  Detroit made two poor choices.  Daniel Norris is vastly overrated.  Sure he’s lefty starter, but his stay in Detroit will be brief until he solves his 3.8 bb per 9.  And, if you thought that was bad, try contestant number two, Jairo LaBourt who walks almost 5 batters per 9.  Boo, Detroit.  The other pitcher is quite good.  Matt Boyd in three years of minor league ball (’15 is A+ ball), he has posted a 2.50/0.99 line to go with a bb/k per 9 line of 2.0/9.2.  One to watch.  Advantage Blue Jays.

Cole Hamels finally gets out of Dodge.  Say what you will about Mr. Hamels, but he has thrown 200+ innings six years, sports a whip of sub 1.2 since 2010 and Texas has him until 2018.  Jake Diekman came along for the ride.  Matt Harrison now gets to enjoy the dysfunction of the Phillies.  He’s been hurt since 2013, so who knows?  Entering the Phillies nightmare of a development system is Jorge Alfaro (solid offensive numbers.  Philly bound in 2016 most likely as a catcher), Nick Williams (left fielder, lefty bat with pop.  Probably Alfaro’s roommate), Jake Thompson (rhp) struggled in 2015, but his three years prior were very good as a starter, Alec Asher (another righty starter) who will see August/September starts in Philly (he’s ready having posted solid numbers for four years in the minors including AAA this year) and Jerad Eickhoff (righty starter number three who also has above average cumulative minor league numbers in five years).  Advantage Texas because when you land a quality left-handed starter who is not a rental, you win.   However, I want to applaud the Philly scouts in their combing of the Texas minor league system.

Brandon Moss to St. Louis is unspectacular, but well done.  This year, Mr. Moss has been awful, but between 2012 to 2014, he hit  21, 30 and 25 dingers respectively.  St. Louis can keep him through next season as well.  Rob Kaminsky receives rave reviews and rightfully so.  Three years in the St. Louis system has resulted in 2.15 era, 1.12 whip in 217.1 ip.  Cleveland awaits in 2017.  Advantage Cleveland.

And now for the Dodgers who went, as a friend says, bat shit crazy.

Mat Latos was having a pathetic year in Miami.  He’s free now.  Look for the Cincinnati version of Mr. Latos to appear in L.A.  Mike Morse is a solid addition on the offensive side.  The more Mr. Morse plays, the better the result, but that might be a tough gig to find in the L.A. outfield.  In return, Jeff Brigham (a right-handed starter with deplorable numbers.  Why, Miami, why?), Victor Araujo (sixth year, 22 years old, a high era of 4.30, but the 1.19 whip and 2.5 bb/9.2 k’s per 9 suggest a bright future and possibly a closer) and Kevin Guzman (20, year three in the minors, progressing nicely as a starter).  Advantage L.A.

After, Mr. Latos, the Dodgers get really aggressive and land Alex Wood (not even touching the surface of his substantial potential), Jim Johnson (2.25/1.23 in 49 games this year), the durable Luis Avilan (lefty reliever, L.A. bound until 2019, featuring a 3.58/1.20 line in 50 games with the Braves) and just for fun, the ancient Bronson Arroyo (sure the salad days are long gone, but if you need a number five starter or a guy to throw on Tuesday, Bronson’s your man).  Wait!  The Dodgers also score Jose Peraza (21 year old second baseman) who has posted a five year total of .303/.344 in the Atlanta system.  Moving to Atlanta (I mean find a place to live close to the ball park) is the much ballyhooed Hector Olivera who was ripping up both AA and AAA pitchers to date.  He’s 30 and not getting any younger.  If Paco Rodriguez can return to health, the Braves score a quality lefty reliever.  I guess Zach Bird knows somebody of influence in the Braves organization.  Otherwise, why did they choose Mr. Bird?  Awful numbers.  Advantage, you guessed correctly, L.A.

We will see what the final day brings.  Stay tuned.

The usual blizzard at the finish.  Here goes:

Joakim Soria to the Pirates is a great move.  Scoring runs in the eighth and ninth against Pittsburgh will be a tough trick.  Jacoby Jones in return has power capability, but overall reads blah.  Advantage Pittsburgh.

Mike Leake to the Giants might just be enough of a push to keep Bochy’s brains in front of Mattingly’s line up.  Mr. Leake’s best years are ahead of him.  In route to Cincinnati’s system is Keury Mella who has travelled well in four years.  A righty starter, 21, at A+ ball.  One to watch.  Adam Duvall, 26, should receive late summer at bats in Cincinnati.  He plays the infield corners and has hit 20+ home runs each season over a five year stretch.  Give him a shot.  Advantage Giants.

A why-did-you-make-this-deal goes to Houston.  Carlos Gomez is average to overrated.  Mike Fiers has never thrown more than 128 innings as a starter.  Again, why did the Astros make this deal?  Body acquisition?  Who knows.  How Milwaukee pulled away four breathing ball players for Mr. Gomez and Mr. Fiers is a mystery.  The best of the lot is Brett Phillips, 21, center fielder, split time in ’15 between A+ (.320/.379) and AA (.321/.377)  Definitely Mr. Gomez’s replacement.  Domingo Santana has posted impressive power numbers during seven years in the minors.  A guy looking for at bats.  Josh Hader, lefty starter, reads well until the lifetime 3.9 bb per 9.  Adrain Houser, righty starter, is average at best.  Advantage Milwaukee.

Finally, the Yankees get involved, but create nothing more than a shoulder shrug. Dustin Ackley continues a downhill slide.  Awful batting average and worse obp.  Ramon Flores had a cup of coffee in the Bronx.  A left fielder with a healthy minor league obp looking for extended opportunity.  Jose Ramirez missed all of ’14.  Converted to a closer this year.  Advantage neither team.

Jonathan Broxton was a bad fit in Milwaukee.  St. Louis is a great place for pitchers.  Malik Cullymore is 20 completing his third year (!) in rookie ball.  He has bad-good-bad pattern.  A poor choice by Milwaukee.  Advantage St. Louis (what else is new).

Baltimore lands Gerardo Parra.  I’m a fan.  Mr. Parra plays his butt off and is good for the clubhouse.  Zach Davies goes to Milwaukee.  Mr. Davies weighs all of 150 pounds, yet in AAA this year he posted 5-6/2.84/1.22 in 101.1 ip.  Still, find a burger joint and move in.  Advantage Birds.

I have no idea as to how Seattle landed three guys in return for Mike Lowe.  Mr. Lowe posted stellar ’15 numbers.  In 34 games, he registered a 1.00/1.17 line (a lower era than whip is a tough trick).  In return, Toronto offered Jake Brentz (third year in rookie ball because he can’t pitch), Nick Wells (who is not much better than Mr. Brentz) and Rob Rasmussen (averages 4.3 bb per 9 in 2015).  Advantage Toronto because they dumped three slow developing (if developing at all) minor leaguers.

Ben Revere to Toronto allows the Jays to have a top-notch center fielder at least through 2018.  Well done.  Much like the Lowe deal, Toronto relieved themselves of two sub-par minor leaguers, Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado.  Both gentlemen walk far too many batters.  Advantage Toronto, but this time because of the player acquired.

Dan Haren is 34?  I thought he was 40.  A great guy for the #4 or #5 starter slot.  A surprise move by the Cubs.  Ivan Pineyro is progressing nicely.  Year five at the age of 23.  A righty starter in AA ball.  Elliot Soto lost his way in 2014 in AAA, but has since recovered in AA.  A 25 year old shortstop who must have a good spring if he wants to continue as a prospect.  Advantage Cubs.

Speaking of the Cubs, a tale of caution called Junior Lake.  Prodigal son in 2013, disappointment in 2014 and what’s his face in 2015.  Tommy Hunter bound for Chicago will help the ‘pen as much as Mr. Haren helps the starting rotation.  Advantage Cubs.

J.A. Happ to the Pirates.  Hmm.  Other than his lefty starter status, I’m not sure why the Pirates made this deal.  Adrian Sampson in year four, AAA this year posted 8-8, 3.98/1.34 heading towards yawn status, but then the 2.1 bb per 9 shows.  Nice job Seattle scouts.  Advantage Seattle.

The wildly overrated Yoenis Cespedes heads to the Mets.  Yes, he can belt the ball far and wide, but at the expense of far too many k’s.  The Tigers score with Michael Fulmer.  A 22 year old righty starter with a 2015 AA line of 1.88/1.12 in 86 ip allowing a paltry 2.4 bb per 9 and striking out 8.7 per 9.  Nice.  Joining Mr. Fulmer is Luis Cessa who suffers from promotion-itis, but once the flak of that disease disappears, a nice job of scouting by Detroit.  Advantage Tigers (unless the Mets get to the NLCS, then my fault).

Finally, Michael Morse is a Dodger for less than a day.  He’s Pittsburgh bound.  If the Pirates play him, he will hit.  If not, prepare for bad attempts at pinch hitting.  In return, the multi-talented Jose Tabata leaves a team jammed with outfielders to join another team jammed with outfielders.  Advantage Pittsburgh.

And thus ends the 2015 trade season.  Enjoy the dog days of August and September.  May your team do well, but not as well as mine.

 

 

 

2015 First Half Review: Padres, Angels and Dodgers

Posted: July 9, 2015 in Uncategorized
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San Diego makes all the right off-season moves, and the result is nothing of note in the first half, less firing Bud Black.

Catching:  Norris provides power (11/45), but a notoriously poor obp (.288).

First:  Alonso needs to stay healthy if the Pads make a wild card run (I’m choosing to assume finishing first is out of the question).  His .302/.391 is impressive and sorely needed in the Pads line-up.

Second:  Gyorko demoted will hopefully lead to Gyorko productive.  Spangenberg’s injury gives Jed another shot.  In 29 fewer at-bats, Gyorko (.292/.338) is much more the hitter than Spangenberg (.254/.304).

Third:  If Middlebrooks ever becomes a .250 hitter, rejoice.  But, I doubt the possibility.  9 dingers and 28 rbi in 240 ab is not what the Padres had in mind.  This position remains a weak point that needs to be addressed if the Padres want to make a strong finish.

Short:  Amarista is as weak as Middlebrooks.  Very little offense to offer.  While solid defensively, his offense (.212/.281) may not be worth the glove.

Left:  Justin Upton has been as advertised.  14/46 in 310 ab bodes well for the entire year.  More Padres should join him.

Center:  Venable by default due to Myers’ injury is part of the first half disappointment.  Venable is a fourth outfielder, not a starter.  Another weak point that needs to be addressed by the end of July.

Right:  Kemp is not a leadoff guy (simple advice to Mr. Murphy).  44 rbi is an impressive first half stat, but the 6 home runs are a tad to the short side.

Starting Pitching:  Shields, much like Justin Upton, is as advertised.  Worth the money.  Ross, Cashner, Despaigne and Kennedy offer enough talent, but, less Ross, the era has to head south (4.06, 4.75 and 4.84) respectively.

Bullpen:  Kimbrel, Maurer and Benoit have been good to awesome.  Maurer with a sub-two era and sub-one whip is fantastic.  Benoit (2.25/0.81) is no less impressive.  Kelly is developing well and should offer some relief (no pun intended) regarding Thayer’s trip to the d.l.  Many baseball mavens criticize the Padres bullpen, but I disagree.  These guys are a quality group.

Second Half Prediction:  Acquire a third baseman who can hit and centerfielder.  Another starting pitcher to follow Ross would be swell.  That may be enough to make take the wild card.

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Arte’s boys continue to disappoint.  DiPoto exits.  On one hand, who can blame him?  But, I do lose patience with the overemphasis on saber metrics.  Strangely, Aaron, Mays, Van Slyke (Andy, not Scott), Robinson (both of them), Trammel and Whitaker all did fine defensively by paying attention to detail without the benefit of statistical reports as to where the ball might land if the pitcher hits his spot and does not shake off the catcher.

Catcher: Between Iannetta and Perez, not much offense.  They combined for 8 doubles, 6 home runs and 30 rbi as of 7/7/15.  Anemic.  Though, they both call a good game.  If offensive weakness must reside, find that weakness at catcher or shortstop.

First.  Pujols is back with a vengeance.  26/56 is overdue.  Better late than never.

Second:  Giavotella is inconsistent at the plate, but give him the ab.  32 rbi in 271 ab is enough to notice.

Third:  Freese took forever to get started, but 10/36 given that horrible start hopefully carries into the second half.

Short:  If Aybar hits above .270 and raises his obp to .320 by the end of the year, Angel fans rejoice.

Left:  I will group the disappointing Matt Joyce (how much longer until he is released or demoted?  C’mon, people.  He’s a bust), Navarro and Robertson.  The latter two splitting time is much more attractive than Joyce taking away another 217 ab for no apparent reason.  Help wanted at the seven spot.

Center:  Lord Trout remains the best baseball player on the planet.

Right:  Calhoun registering 9/46 is necessary or else all the Angels consistently register on offense is Trout and Pujols.

DH:  Cron needs to play on Sunday’s only.

Starting Pitching:  Weaver, though currently on the d.l., is amazing.  How he has four wins is beyond understanding.  A whip of 1.24 is testimony to a pitcher who can think his way through a lineup regardless of diminishing ability.  Santiago (2.40/1.09) is this year’s Shoemaker.  Wilson and Richards must continue first half success into the Dog Days or else the Angels finish third or worse.  If Heaney realizes his substantial talent, the Angels have much less concern.

Bullpen:  Street (2.34/0.89), Smith (2.80/1.08), Ramos (1.88/1.25) and Gott (1.80/0.80) allow Scioscia to sleep at night and might allow him to keep his job. Alvarez and Salas, while posting higher era than their ‘pen mates, have just as impressive whip numbers (1.07 and 1.15 respectively).

Second Half Prediction:  A lot to solve on the offensive side.  DH, left and catching need significant upgrades.  But, Arte owes most people and their brothers a lot of salary until 2035 or thereabout (a fellow living in Texas comes to mind).  Scioscia finally loses his job at season’s end and moves to Philly.  Sorry, Anaheim.

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Why do the Dodgers keep winning?  Six of eight hitters with the most at-bats have obp ranging from .348 to .390.  These guys get on base and score runs.  Also, having Greinke and Kershaw is certainly helpful.

Catcher:  Grandal is more than adequate.  Anybody who keeps Ellis on the bench is doing a fine job.

First:  As Gonzalez gets older, he gets downright cranky, but can he hit.

Second:  Kendrick’s first half power numbers of 7/37 is a distant dream for most second basemen.

Third:  Turner hitting 11 home runs, driving in 38 and hitting an amazing .314/.384 is why we watch baseball.

Short:  The only true bust is Rollins.  Better off with another player at this spot.

Left:  Van Slyke pieced together an acceptable showing of 8 doubles, 4 homers and 18 rbi in 110 ab.

Center:  Pederson is the solo home run king.  His batting average has sunk to .230, but his bop is .368.  20/39 for rookie power numbers is eye-catching.

Right:  Ethier plays and Ethier does not make the L.A. Times bitch and moan section.

Special Mention:  Puig may be trade bait come late-July.  Given Guerrero’s solid bench play (10/30 was not expected) and the return of Crawford, the Dodgers are deep in the outfield.  Dangling Puig to the right team could result in a significant return.  We shall see.

Starting Pitching:  As mentioned above, Greinke (who should have a dozen wins, if he received any run support) and Kershaw are a superb one-two.  However, Anderson (5-5, 3.12/1.31) and Bolsinger (4-3, 3.09/1.28) deserve praise.  Without these two, the Dodgers are a third place team in a weak division.

Bullpen:  Jansen, Gracia, Howell (especially) and Liberatore are fantastic, yet do not receive enough recognition regarding the Dodgers’ success.  Nicasio and Baez aren’t bad either.

Second Half Prediction:  The Dodgers do not sit still.  Deals will be made.  Look for a new shortstop and a couple of starters as of 7/31, if not sooner.

 

2015 Boston Red Sox: The Half Way Point

Posted: July 8, 2015 in Uncategorized
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The easy subtitle is “Why Are We Awful?”.

Catching:  Other than Hanigan’s .378 obp, he and his soul mates, Swihart and Leon, are largely unproductive with bats in hand.  The three have a combined 11 doubles, 2 homeruns and a whopping 22 rbi (as of 7/7/15).  A below average trio.  Perhaps Christian Vasquez is near health.

First:  Napoli must go.  I was hopeful that after the Angels’ series, he would remain hot, alas, not so much.  The .192 batting average is indicative of a man who can’t hit a mlb fastball.  Time to move on at the end July.  Thanks for the beard and memories.  Daniel Nava and Travis Shaw can share the spot and offer twice the production of Mike.

Second:  Pedroia reaching 281 ab before landing on the dl is true dirt dog.  .306/.367.  Sounds good.  Return as soon as possible.

Third:  Sandoval’s numbers (.270/.313) are awful.  And all that money in exchange.  7 homers and 29 rbis is as woeful as his ba/obp.  Time to play ball in the second half.  Stay off your phone during game time.

Short:  Bogaerts driving in 40 by and large courtesy of his 19 doubles is a tribute to the patience of Farrell and Cherington.  Change nothing.

Left:  Hanley Ramirez plays the ugliest outfield since his namesake Manny and Jonny Gomes.  Wince, close both eyes, pray.  But, 18 homers and 43 rbis make for a lot of understanding.

Center:  Mookie, oh, Mookie.  You and Xander must stay forever.  The future is bright up the middle.

Right:  I’m lumping Victorino, De Aza (initially, I despised the acquisition, but .317/.364 convinces me otherwise) and Castillo as proof that Ben does not have a well thought plan in right field.  Shane complains when he does not play.  Castillo is an underachiever to date.  Trade Shane to lessen the moan and groan.

DH:  Ortiz hitting .226 is as glaring as Napoli’s .192.  But, with 14/41 in the power category, I trust David will enjoy the true heat of summer and warm his bat.

Special Mention:  Brock Holt.  Enjoy the All-Star game.  May your second half be your first half.

Starting Pitching:  Since dismissing Nieves, the starters have improved.  Granted, Porcello seems to be as much a bust as Kelly, but I’m hopeful one of the two can return to form in August/September.  Buchholz is enjoying a lot more than simple consistency.  He is one of the better A.L. pitchers the last four weeks.  Rodriguez is a welcome addition.  Any lefty who can throw strikes is the same as finding a hundred-dollar bill on the sidewalk.  Smile.  If Masterson remains healthy, at the very least, he should eat 100 innings in the second half.  Miley needs to reduce the walks, thus his whip (1.44.  Far too high for an effective starter).

Bullpen:  Uehara, Tazawa, Ogando and Layne need company.  Ross and Hembree have disappointed.  Breslow may be less of a puzzle to the opposition.  Steven Wright needs more innings.  Just ask Wakefield.

Second Half Prediction:  The A.L. East is awful this year.  Remember the ice cream falling off the cone.  Landing with a plop in the dirt.  That’s the A.L. East . . . and the Red Sox.  If Ben can solve first base and right field as well as land a #2 or #3 starter plus one more proven arm for the seventh/eighth inning, the Sox can make a run because Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and the Evil Empire aren’t any better.

 

A Rebuttal to Bill Plaschke’s 4/28/15 L.A. Times Article on Josh Hamilton

Posted: April 30, 2015 in Uncategorized
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Bill, Bill, Bill.  Must have been a bad day or two as you composed the apologist Josh Hamilton piece.  Josh needs help, not enabling.  Just ask those who attempted to assist Mr. Hamilton over the years.  Sober or not.

You begin with the absurd barb aimed at the Angels “plunking down about $60 million for intolerance and insensitivity.”  The vast majority of us believe that when an individual signs a contract, the terms there within are agreed to in full.  Thus, why and how is demanding sobriety suddenly ridiculous, unrealistic and the stuff of dreamers?

Referring to Arte Moreno as having the “stench” of “anger” borders on the classic reaching to nowhere in particular.  Other than for the sake of directionless reach.  Alas, I repeat.  Arte’s “anger” is well placed and deserved.  Arte is a businessman, not a purveyor of posters and merchandise featuring his ball players (that manifest falls to the MLBPA).  Mr. Moreno is right to claim “. . . but the  reality is there’s accountability.  When you make an agreement, you need to stand up.”  Indeed.  Mr. Plaschke at this point advances the argument that Mr. Moreno is somehow devoid of financial sensibility by insisting that Mr. Hamilton agree to abide by contractual clauses regarding a steady state of sobriety achieved and maintained during the time of said contract.  This is the line of a despicable, thoughtless, uncaring hard ass?  Continuing, Mr. Plaschke offers the claim that addiction (relapse) creates condition for group hugs and he-tried-really-hard rhetoric reserved for a middle school student struggling through pre-algebra rather than a grown man in breach of contract.

Mr.Plaschke then quotes Jerry DiPoto, “If I can put a finger on why Josh had a tough time here, we may have been able to help him solve those issues.”  Mr. Plashcke then fires back with the answer “So they were admittedly out of touch with their investment.”  To which I say how do the Angels fall short in this demand for support with the 2013 hiring of Shayne Kelley to be Mr. Hamilton’s full-time accountability partner?  The Angels hired an adult babysitter.  Evidently, Mr. Hamilton sought and/or requested change of full-time accountability partner (could this not be more Hollywood?) to family friend Boyd Bassham and to a lesser extent his wife.  Seems as if Mr. Hamilton left the gym for the television and the couch only left to wonder why the weight was returning.

The nut of my retort is Mr. Hamilton happily and with perfect understanding signed a five-year, $125 million contract with the Angels.  Language there within referenced, shall we say, a holistic lifestyle meaning no booze or coke or whatever controlled substance may have gathered momentary interest.  According to Mr. Plaschke’s logic, the Angels were underhanded and delusional in their contractual offerings agreed to by Mr. Hamilton.

Then the absolute circus-like comment from Mr. Hamilton himself “I worked my butt off to be that guy this year going into this season with the Angels.  They just didn’t want that to happen for some reason.”  WHAT?!!!!  You, Mr. Hamilton, relapsed like a Keith Richards wanna be.  A poser.  A I-can-handle-this (no, you can’t) egotist.  But, wait.  This self-serving drivel from a typical professional athlete blooms.  “He (Moreno) knew what the deal was when he signed me.  Hands down, he knew what he was getting.  He knew what the risks were.  He knew all those things.”  The idiocy is blinding.  Most of us can relate to personal relationships.  Let us cloak Mr. Hamilton’s assumptions within marriage and a husband .  Prior to the lucky lady agreeing to the proposal, dear Mr. Hamilton acknowledges problems with infidelity, weekend strippers, Vegas hookers, morning bracer/pick me ups, drunk driving, zeroing out the ATM account with weekend “purchases” and other shortcomings.  He promises to be good.  Yet, the inevitable (in his mind) failure lies at the feet of the silly woman who refused to realize he was bound for various relapses into bad behavior.  Perfect sense.  For a loon.

To end this rebuttal of Mr. Plaschke’s fountain of enabling, I quote Mr. Hamilton as all eyes look to Texas; “I’ve done a lot of growing, learning and soul-searching over the last few weeks.”  We can only hope.  Mr. Plaschke certainly hopes as well.

 

 

N.L. East 2015 Preview

Posted: March 26, 2015 in Uncategorized
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Miami

Ramble:  Dee Gordon and Mike Morse make for a better right side of the infield.

Outfield:  Giancarlo Stanton in right, Marcell Ozuna in center and Christian  Yelich in left.  Not bad.  Ichiro Suzuki offers batting tips while playing an inning or two in the outfield.

Infield:  Mike Morse and Dee Gordon join Martin Prado and Adeiny Hechavarria.  Utility guys will feature Donovan Solano, Jeff Baker and Derek Dietrich.

Catching:  Granted, anytime Jarod Saltalamacchia is your starting catcher, I’m concerned, but the veteran Jeff Mathis is ready for extended service if required, thus providing above average defense and enhancing the confidence of his pitchers.  Jarod, not so much.  J.T. Realmuto should be part of the cast.  Frankly, Jarod should be dealt.

Starting Pitching:  Not as good as the Nats, but who is?  Jose Fernandez, Mat Latos (talk less, pitch more), Jarred Cosart, Dan Haren, Tom Koehler and Henderson Alvarez individually and collectively need to hit the magic 5 1/3 to 6 inning mark on a regular basis if the Fish are to make a playoff run.  The starters have the ability to carry their teammates.

Relief:  Steve Cishek will close.  Mike Dunn and A.J. Ramos form the real talent in the bullpen.  Bryan Morris, Aaron Crow and Preston Claiborne hope to join them.

AAA/AA Help:  Justin Bour (1b), Carter Capps (relief), Greg Nappo (relief) and Matt Ramsay (relief).

Prediction:  First by a scale over the Nationals.

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Washington

Ramble:  Signing Max Scherzer made a good staff better.  The mavens calling for the trade of any starter in light of the Max signing (pun intended), are out of their individual minds.  Too much pitching does not exist.  Keep all.

Outfield:  I’ve never been a Bryce Harper fan.  Nothing has changed.  Mike Trout, he ain’t.  Denard Span in center and Jayson Werth (moving to left?  Why?) form a top-notch defensive outfield.  Nate McClouth and Kevin “I’ll Play Anywhere” Frandsen take the late innings.

Infield:  Ryan Zimmerman moves to first while Anthony Rendon plays the other corner.  Yunel Escobar (running out of chances.  Traded twice during the winter is never a good sign) and Ian Desmond are up the middle.  Frandsen backs first and third when not in the outfield and Danny Espinosa backs the middle.

Catching:  Wilson Ramos and either Jose Lobaton or Sandy Leon back him.  A lackluster trio.

Starting Pitching:  As deep as the Giants, and that is high praise.  Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez form an impressive starting five, and, yet Tanner Roark deserves starts as well.

Relief:  Drew Storen hopes to build on 2014’s result.  Casey Janssen, Aaron Barrett, Matt Thornton, Jerry Blevins, Xavier Cedeno and Craig Stammen are rather pedestrian and do not equate with the Marlins bullpen.

AAA/AA Help:  The majority of their talent is entering AA this year, thus nobody of note until 2016.

Prediction:  Second in the East, but any Fish slip means first, but any Nats slip means third behind the Mets (you read those words correctly).  And the position guys need to reduce their strikeouts.

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New York

Ramble:  While I despise the EE, these guys, even in light of 1986 (yeah, I’m that old), I have grown to love.  Having exposed my favoritism towards the real NYC team, they did nothing over the winter to help themselves.

Outfield:  Curtis Grandson in right continues to shine a light on bad defensive placement.  Curtis has no arm strength, thus begging the question, why is he in right?  Using Daniel Murphy as a cutoff to enhance arm strength is, um, dodgy.  Michael Cuddyer in left and Juan Lagares in center make for a fast outfield with little arm power.  Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt van Dekker offer competition especially in case Granderson has another ’14.

Infield:  Lucas Duda receiving at bats will continue to improve.  David Wright needs to put together a year worthy of his salary.  Daniel Murphy is a top five N.L. second baseman.  Wilmer Flores must prove he is an everyday shortstop.  Ruben Tejada and Eric Campbell get the bulk of the jack-of-all-trades duty.

Catching:  The long praised Travis d’Anaud claims the starting catching spot.  Anthony Recker backs him.

Starting Pitching:  Granted, injury is a part of the game, but the injury this staff has endured is absolutely ridiculous.  Matt Harvey returns while Zack Wheeler departs.  Can’t win for trying.  Jacob deGrom, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee must pitch well if the Mets are to challenge the Marlins and Nationals.  Bartolo “Fat Man” Colon handles the fifth spot.  Anything higher will expose dwindling velocity by the end of April.

Relief:  A proposed battle between Jenrry Mejia and Bobby Parnell for the ninth inning that I don’t buy (Parnell should not be considered for the spot).  Jenrry had a horrible whip that needs to come down in ’15.  Jeurys Familia, Josh Edgin and Vic Black form an above average core.  Erik Goeddel, Dario Alvarez and Sean Gilmartin need to be as good as Familia, Edgin and Black.

AAA/AA Help:  Juan Centeno (c), Dilson Herrera (2b), Matt Reynolds (ss) and Chase Bradford (relief.  May I offer Mr. Bradford as closer in waiting).

Prediction:  Most likely finishing third which gives hope for those traveling to Queens.  But, if the Mets are the healthy team (for once) and the Marlins and Nationals take a key hit, the Mets finish second.

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Atlanta

Ramble:  Lots of people leaving, lots of people arriving.  A very active winter.  Sadly, the Braves did not improve.

Outfield:  Eric Young, Jr. and Nick Markakis join Melvin “Don’t Call Me B.J.” Upton in the outfield.  Jonny Gomes brings the right attitude with suspect defensive skills.  Jonny turned many a standard fly ball into circus time in Fenway.  Zolio Almonte and Eury Perez should get some time during the late innings.

Infield:  Freddie Freeman, Alberto Callaspo, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons form an average infield that will hopefully hit.  Well, Freddie will hit, no doubt.  As for the utility guys, I’m guessing Kelly Johnson and Phil Gosselin pressed by Elmer Reyes.

Catching:  The more time John Buck and Christian Bethancourt spend catching the less time Aj Pierzynski spends catching.  A quality scenario.

Starting Pitching:  Julio Theran, Mike Minor and Eric Stults form an effective core.  Alex Wood and Shelby Miller most likely round out the rest of the starters.  Wandy Rodriguez hopes to find his former self.  Doing so would help the Braves immensely.

Relief:  Craig Kimbrel, while a top 5 N.L. closer, won’t receive a lot of save opportunities this year.  Jason Grilli can sub if Kimbrel is injured. Otherwise, he’s a quality eighth inning guy.  Jim Johnsson, James Russell, Josh Outman (a applicable last name given his profession) Mike Kohn and Luis Avilan will receive more appearances than the coaching staff desires.

AAA/AA Help:  Jose Peralta (2b, and the reason Tyler Pastornicky and Tommy La Stella are no longer with the organization), Cedric Hunter (of), Greg Ross (starter) and Shae Simmons (relief, though injured).

Prediction:  Second to last in the N.L. East.  Average baseball in a sweaty environment leads to plunging attendance.

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Philadelphia

Ramble:  This is a bad organization.  They do very little well.  All decisions are suspect.  Fan rebellion awaits.

Outfield:  Poor Ben Revere (a good ball player) suffers through another year with Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown on either side.  Grady Sizemore gets another resurrection shot.  Jordan Danks eventually gets most of the Sunday work.

Infield:  The declining Ryan Howard at first, ever-injured Chase Utley at second, Cody Asche at third and Freddy Galvis at short.  Something says a lack of confidence.  Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco serves as the utility men

Catching:  One of the few (only?) bright spots in Philly is Carlos Ruiz (a fine catcher).  Cameron Rupp backs him.

Starting Pitching:  Cliff Lee probably doesn’t pitch effectively given his injury.  Cole Hammels waits for the end of July to find a new home with a playoff team.  Jerome Williams (I have a soft spot for Jerome.  He is a true believer who did years in the minors before the Angels finally gave him a chance) and his pink glove will get lots of innings.  Aaron Harang hopefully pitches well.  Any team that signs Chad Billingsley and Kevin Slowey is in a world of hurt.

Relief:  Jonathan “Mean Face” Papelbon heads a bullpen that is shallow, thin and without system assistance.  Good luck to all who emerge from the shadows of the bullpen.  Let’s run with Ken Giles, Jake Diekmann, Mario Hollands, Luis Garcia, Hector Neris and Justin De Fratus.  This group will be exhausted by the end of June.

AAA/AA Help:  None.  Zip.  Zero.  The Phillies are the worst team in baseball in developing talent.  Awful.  Bad.  Pathetic.  They received a rating of 1.2 (out of a possible 4) in my minor league system ratings.

Prediction:  Hmm.  Dead last.  Worst team in baseball.  Why can’t the Yankees be this bad?

 

 

 

 

 

2015 N.L. Central Preview

Posted: March 19, 2015 in Uncategorized
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St. Louis

Ramble:  The Cards keep John Lackey and acquire Jason Hayward and Jordan Walden.  The ship continues to sail forward.

Outfield:  No surprises.  Matt Holiday in left, Jon Jay in center and Jason Heyward in right hoping to fully realize all that ability.  Pete Bourjos gets most of the fourth outfielder time.

Infield:  Matt Adams at first, Kolten Wong (looking for a productive year to secure his spot) at second, Jhonny Peralta at short and Matt Carpenter at third.  Mark Reynolds sees time at the corners.  Pete Kozma subs up the middle.

Catching:  Yadier Molina rebounds nicely from injury.  Tony Cruz backs him, but Ed Easley is waiting.

Starting Pitching.  Adam Wainwright (awesome), Lance Lynn, John Lackey, Michael Wacha (a load of talent) and choose between Jaime Garcia and Marco Gonzales for the last spot.

Relief:  Trevor Rosenthal provides another outstanding year closing for the Cards.  Jordan Walden, Matt Belisle, Randy Choate, Seth Maness, Carlos Martinez and Sam Freeman will get most of the work leading to Rosenthal.

AAA/AA Help:  Ed Easley (c), Cody Stanley (c), Xavier Scruggs (1b), Jacob Wilson (2b) and Thomas Pham (of).

Prediction:  First in the Central.

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Pittsburgh

Ramble:  Russell Martin leaves for Canada.  Yawn.

Outfield:  Maybe the best in baseball.  Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco will roam Pittsburgh for quite a while.  Jose Tabata is probably traded.  And, Pittsburgh’s two best position prospects are also outfielders.  Nice problem.

Infield:  Pedro Alvarez moves to first where he will, hopefully, commit fewer errors.  Josh Harrison takes over at third.  Jordy Mercer and Neil Walker form a serviceable duo up the middle.  Sean Rodriguez and Justin Turner receive Sunday play at second, third and short.  Andrew Lambo offers a non-leaded glove alternative at first if Pedro suffers from glove-itis.

Catching:  Francisco Cervelli attempts to take Martin’s spot.  I’m betting Tony Sanchez gets the back up spot and pushes Cervelli because Elias Diaz is probably a year away.

Starting:  Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett and Vance Worley make an above average rotation, but nowhere near St. Louis.  Jeff Locke and Brandon Crumpton wait.

Relief:  Mark Melancon has another good year, but nobody notices.  Tony Watson, Jared Hughes, Antonio Bastardo and Stolmy Pimentel get the bulk of the pre-Melancon innings.  However, if the Pirates are to keep Cincy and the Cubs at bay, John Holdzkom and Bobby LaFromboise must provide quality innings.

AAA/AA Help:  Keon Broxton (of) and Mel Rojas (of).

Prediction:  Participating in a season long brawl for second.

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Chicago

Ramble:  Signing Jon Lester for far too much money is the obvious oh-ah.  Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero and David Ross (Lester’s personal catcher) were unspectacular, solid moves.  Same goes with Chris Denorfia joining the outfield group.  Oh, yeah, the manager guy, Joe Maddon, that was a nice move, too.

Outfield:  Why some Cubs’ mavens have soured on Junior Lake is a tad puzzling, though Chris Coghlan clearly was the better player in ’14.  Dexter Fowler wins the center field job.  Jorge Soler, less a bad spring, should land in right.  The aforementioned Denorfia brings the proper attitude sorely needed.

Infield:  Anthony Rizzo slowly improves.  If Mike Olt doesn’t make a quick start, Kris Bryant takes over at third.  Starlin Castro is inconsistent at short (and the plate).  The light hitting Javier Baez hoovers under the same light as Mike Olt, for Arismendy Alcantara wants to play everyday.  Tommy La Stella gets more work than he imagined as Mr. Utility.

Catching:  Miguel Montero vastly improves this position for Cubs faithful.  David Ross catches Lester and nobody else (maybe Felix Doubront).  Rafael Lopez does most of the real late-inning catching to give Montero a breather.

Starting Pitching:  Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Travis Wood form a first-three good enough to concern the Pirates.  Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, Eric Jokisch, Tsuyoshi Wada and Felix Doubront (last chance to pitch in the bigs) battle for the last two spots.  If Hendricks and Jokisch pitch to expectation, the Cubs may surprise many.

Relief:  Hector Rondon improves as the closer.  Pedro Strop, Neil Ramirez, Blake Parker, Drake Britton, Zac Rosscup, Jason Motte and Brian Schlitter form a much improved bullpen.

AAA/AA Help:  Andrew McKirahan (relief).

Prediction:  The above referenced brawl.  If Pittsburgh’s bullpen blows up, the Cubs take second.  Otherwise the tantalizing close third.

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Cincinnati

Ramble:  Marlon Byrd joins the outfield.  Nice, but not enough

Outfield:  Byrd, the blazing fast Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce.  Not bad.  Skip Schumaker and Kristopher Negron take most of the late innings.

Infield:  Joey Votto (may health return or the Reds are in immediate trouble) at first, the fun to watch Brandon Phillips at second, Todd Frazier at third and Zack Cozart (overrated) at short.  As to Sunday guys, the Reds have prospects, but none seem to make the list of consideration.

Catching:  Devin Mesoraco (he can hit) and Brayan Pena.

Starting Pitching:  Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey are an above average trio.  If Tony Cingrani meets expectations, this is a deep rotation, if not, a tad thin.  Anthony DeSciafani and Dylan Axelrod tussle for the last spot.

Relief:  The flame thrower, Aroldis Chapman, in the ninth.  Burke Badenhop and  Pedro Villarreal offer quality help.  Then relief personnel becomes ineffective.  Choose from Sean Marshal, Manny Para, JJ Hoover, Sam LeCure and you get the idea.

AAA/AA Help:  Neftali Soto (3b), Seth Mejias-Brean (3b) and Kyle Waldrop (of.  The best offensive player in their system).

Prediction:  Shy of Bruce, Votto, Frazier and Mesoraco combining for 110+ home runs, the Reds struggle and settle into fourth place.

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Milwaukee

Ramble:  Here’s hoping.

Outfield:  Khris Davis in left, Carlos Gomez in center with Ryan “Telling the Truth is Hard” Braun in right.  Gerardo Parra should gather a few at bats, as well.

Infield:  Adam Lind at first (not a good sign), Scooter Gennett and Jean Segura handle the middle with youth and promise while Aramis Ramirez handles third until Jason Rogers shows he’s ready to assume the hot corner.  If Lind struggles early, look for Matt Clark to get a chance to stick in the bigs.

Catching:  Jonathan Lucroy (a fine catcher) and Martin Maldonado attempt to make the best of a pedestrian group of starters.

Starting Pitching:  Kyle Lohse followed by a shoulder shrug of Matt Garza, Wiley Peralta, Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson (the Brewers number one starting prospect).  If this group struggles, gonna be a long year in Milwaukee.

Relief:  Frankie Rodriguez returns as the closer (Thank goodness.  Otherwise this group goes from below average to awful).  Jonathan Broxton handles the eighth.  Rob Wooten, Will Smith, Neal Cotts, Jim Henderson, Tyler Thornburg and Brandon Kintzler are arbitrarily selected due to a lack of past performance from current contestants.

AAA/AA Help: Tyler Cravy (starter).  The Brewers rated second to last in my player development ratings (only in front of the substantially worse Phillies).

Prediction:  Dead last in the Central.

 

 

N.L. West 2015 Preview (less the Padres and Dodgers who were previewed on my 3/3/15 post)

Posted: March 17, 2015 in Uncategorized
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San Francisco

Ramble:  Panda leaves.  Mike Morse leaves.  The Giants did not have a lot of power, now they have substantially less.

Outfield:  If you cannot run, don’t play outfield for the Giants.  Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence (the most clumsy looking ball player in all of baseball) are wanna-be sprinters.  Gregor Blanco will push Aoki for the left field spot.  Juan Perez is the best outfield prospect in the Giants system and is looking to stick.

Infield:  Casey McGehee takes Sandoval’s spot.  Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik make a good middle.  Brandon Belt hopefully provides punch which the Giants desperately need.

Catching:  Buster Posey and Andrew Susac enjoy their position given who throws to them.

Starting Pitching:  Making a non-playoff case against the Giants is most difficult given Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson and Tim Lincecum.  Is Ryan Vogelsong the odd man out?  Rich and deep.

Relief:  Santiago Casilla seems to be a foregone conclusion as the closer, but Sergio Romo might feel differently.  A nice problem to have.  Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez (another reason to be left-handed and stick around forever) are the solid old guys.  Hunter Strickland and George Kontos need to be as effective as Jean Machi.

AAA/AA Help:  I’m assuming Andrew Susac makes the team, but Trevor Brown (c) is just as good, Blake Miller (2b), Adam Duvall (3b), Matt Duffy (ss), Clayton Blackburn (starter) and Cody Hall (relief).

Prediction:  The Giants have anemic offense.  Regardless of their starting pitching, they slip to third in the West.

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Arizona

Ramble:  Less the Wade Miley trade for Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa, a quiet winter.

Outfield:  Average to above average as the year progresses.  Candidly, Mark Trumbo in right may not be a good fit.  Left field is a better choice as time goes on.  A.J. Pollock in center and David Peralta in left join Trumbo in the “we can hit” march.  Ender Inciarte and Cody Ross get the late innings.

Infield:  Paul Goldschmidt has a banner year in ’15.  Aaron Hill plays another quality year of second base.  Chris Owings continues to improve at short.  Yasmany Tomas at third is a bit of a question.  Jake Lamb and Nick Ahmed serve as capable back-up at third and short.  If either Tomas or Owings suffer a long spell of unproductive at bats, opportunity awaits for both Lamb and Ahmed.

Catching:  Tuffy Gosewisch has a cool name.  We will see if he can catch 130 games or so.  Oscar Hernandez (a better than 40% toss rate in the minors) probably backs him up.  If Oscar can hit a percent better than Tuffy, he starts.

Starting Pitching:  Josh Collmenter, Chase Anderson and Vidal Nuno are the first three.  Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster and Trevor Cahill battle for the last two spots.  If either De La Rosa or Webster win 12 to 14 games, then the Miley deal gets rave reviews.

Relief:  Addison Reed handles the ninth.  Brad Ziegler, Oliver Perez, Evan Marshall, Matt Stites, David Hernandez, Matt Reynolds and Robbie Ray are my arbitrary choices to form an average relief corps.

AA/AA Help:  Stevie Rodriguez (c), Brandon Drury (3b), Tom Belza (of) and Mike Freeman (of).  Pitching you say?  Not much is developed.  2104 minor league pitching received a D.  Closers received an F.  Ugly.

Prediction:  A distant fourth in the West.

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Colorado

Ramble:  Nothing.  Absolutely nothing.

Outfield:  A dog fight between Carlos Gonzalez (a healthy 2015 would be swell), Corey Dickerson, Drew Stubbs and Charlie Blackmon.

Infield:  Justin Morneau and Nolan Arenado handle the corners and smash baseballs.  Troy Tulowitzki is hopeful for health.  DJ LeMahieu partners at second.  Rafael Ynoa can play (hit, especially).  Wilin Rosario needs at bats as well.

Catching:  Nick Hundley and Matt McKenry share the duties.  Hundley received a plethora of chance during his San Diego days to earn the tag of starting catcher, but could never quite hold the title.

Starting Pitching:  Jorge De La Rosa, Jordan Lyles (poster child for not rushing starting pitchers through the system.  Thank you, Houston), Kyle Kendrick, Jhoulys Chacin and Tyler Matzek.  This lot is thin.  Thin pitching at a high altitude is a season long disaster.

Relief:  The ageless LaTroy Hawkins is chosen by most as closer.  I move for John Axford to assume the title and return LaTroy to an earlier appearance.  As for the remainder of the corps, close your eyes and reach into the nearest hat.  I will go with Boone Logan, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Rex Brothers, Yohan Flande, Jorge Rondon, and Brooks Brown as the primary group.  Sadly, the Rockies groom relievers almost as badly as the Diamondbacks.  Almost.

AAA/AA Help: Cristhian Adames (ss) and Daniel Winkler (starter).

Prediction:  A good year would be to finish in front the Snakes.  We shall see.

The Aztecs and a Brief Appearance in March Madness

Posted: March 15, 2015 in Uncategorized
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An 8 seed?  I love my guys, but we are not worthy of an 8 seed.  Given the start to the Wyoming game (O’Brien misses a layup, Spencer misses a one footer and Shepard air balls a three.  Yuk.) and the resulting loss, we should have been no better than a 10 seed.

Regardless, we will beat St. John’s.  Then, Duke awaits.  Then, the end of our journey through Madness.

As a side note to Fisher and staff, please do not dress the guys in uniforms recently sported by Kansas.  You know, the fashion piece with an apron wrap effect.  Kansas looked like a waitress with bad habits trying too hard for a better tip.

 

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