Posts Tagged ‘Aztecs’

Having roundly criticized Maxwell Smith for better than a month, I now congratulate him on an unspectacular, yet solid effort against Hawaii.  11/15, 1 touchdown, no interceptions and 184 yards is serviceable.  However, my call for change continues.

Donnel Pumphrey was stellar especially playing with the dread high ankle sprain.  3 touchdowns cures a lot of injury.  218 total yards rushing is testament to the offensive line getting a whole lot of push.  Congrats to Curtis Anderson, III for leap frogging four teammates to receive playing time and make his first catch of the year.

The Aztec defense was superb.  4 sacks, 2.5 by defensive linemen (Jon Sanchez, Christian Hayward and Noble Hall), was a job well done.  Ending the last two Hawaii drives in the fourth quarter with interceptions (Damontae Kazee and J.J. Whitaker) took what little momentum and/or hope retained by Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors (we can do better in the nickname/mascot category) were held to a total of 53 rushing yards and 251 total offensive yards.  Nice job, Aztecs.

2-0 in MWC play.  Change nothing.  Except the quarterback.

The San Diego State Aztecs are a bad football team.  We are inept and ill prepared.  Five sacks, four fumbles, three of which were lost and the inability to catch a punt is indicative of a football team searching for its collective soul.

I, again, call for the end of Maxwell Smith’s reign as starting quarterback.  10 for 29 is not an Aztec quarterback.  Another anemic performance (and I’m being polite).  While acknowledging he was sacked five times, those sacks emphasize Mr. Smith’s lack of mobility that in turn results in an astonishingly bad 242 total yards of offense.  This is Aztec football?  Christian Chapman eludes some of those sacks because he can move from side to side, step into the pocket and actually run forward.  Mr. Smith was the primary author of 6 yards gained in the first quarter.  6.  The number found between 5 and 7.  In the second quarter, he revved up the offense to 72 total yards.  Feel the excitement.  Why does Rocky continue to start Mr. Smith?  Why does Jeff Horton remain blind to the need for change?  Finally, when a starting quarterback’s longest completed pass is 31 yards, the defense stuffs any and all attempts to establish a running game since the first seven guys can stand at the line of scrimmage and wave “hello” to Pumphrey, Price, Penny and Gordon.

Our field position was so bad that Donny Hageman was not handed a single field goal opportunity.  We converted a lousy 5 of 17 third down opportunities.  Boo.

8:16 represents the Aztecs time of possession for the entire first half.  Unbelievable.  In the second quarter, we had the ball for less than 4 minutes.  Incredible for the wrong reason.

The defense played better than the Cal and South Alabama games, but we continue to allow too many big plays especially on the back-end of the secondary.

Mountain West play begins this weekend.  We stumble into MW town with a 1-3 record looking disheveled, dirty and disoriented.  We haven’t played well the entire four games leading to MW play.  Cold comfort can be found that the rest of the West division played about as poorly as we did in non-conference games.  Fresno State and their loyal hordes of fans (yes, I’m jealous) roar into the Q next Saturday.  Candidly, the Aztecs must steam roll the rest of the schedule for any chance at a bowl game.  I trust change is underway and we will see a mobile, smart, redshirt freshman by the last name of Chapman directing our offense that will finally resemble an Aztec offense we can recognize.

Aztecs be concerned.  37-3 should be a time to expand the chest and walk about in pride.  But, not this game.  While not calling for fear, do find substantial pause for thought.

Granted, the defense was tremendous.  But, they should be tremendous against USD.  Holding the Toreros to less than 200 yards total offense deserves praise.  As does five picks.  As does two defensive touchdowns.  A great first game against a team that did not have a chance (no offense, USD).

And now for the concern.  Maxwell Smith was awful.  I mean Nick Bawden awful.  9/21 with an interception.  100 yards.  Sailing the ball past wide open receivers (and tight ends and running backs) all night.  Mr. Smith was appallingly ineffective.  Further proof (do you need any?) includes the 6/14 on third down conversions.  Against USD.  Please.  The offensive line must improve quickly.  As in the next few practices prior to Cal or we score no more than 10 points against the Bears.  The Aztec offense generated a measly 305 total yards.  Boo.  One offensive touchdown.  One.  Our defense outscored our offense.  Say those words again.  How about the 15 first downs?  Put up 15 first downs against any other opponent, even South Alabama, and we lose.  Badly.

Speaking of offense, thank you, Donny Hageman.  3/3 from 33, 36 and 37.  Confidence.  Perhaps the rest of the offense will consult with you.  Charge a fee.

To those of us sporting those ugly rose-colored glasses, lose them.  Stomp on those distorters (new word).  Smash.  Grind into the asphalt.  Say, “grrr” while doing so.  Very little to cheer about this effort.

On behalf of the 48,785 (a third of whom wandered in during the fourth quarter to discover a football game in progress), thank you.

 

Let’s begin on the offensive side of the ball.

QB:  As “fall” (honestly, any school west of the Rockies should choose a summer or pre-season description rather than any reference to autumn) camp concludes, Maxwell Smith will be named the starting quarterback.  Mr. Smith started for bad Kentucky teams against dauntingly good SEC (the AAA of the NFL) teams.  That experience is beyond valuable.  If Mr. Smith can limit mistakes and quickly grasp the offense of Jeff Horton, a flurry of offense is the result.  Backing Mr. Smith is Christian Chapman and the Oregon transfer Jake Rodrigues.  Thankfully, Nick Bawden is now a fullback.

RB:  The best running back in the MW returns.  Donnel Pumphrey has no peer.  Fine, I admit New Mexico, Wyoming, Fresno State and Colorado State all possess at least one quality running back, but none quite so talented as Mr. Pumphrey.  Chase Price (a human bowling ball seeking immediate contact with linebackers), the injured Marcus Stamp whose depth chart spot will go to Rashaad Penny followed by Pumphrey-sized freshman, Juwan Washington, make for a talented group of running backs.

FB:  Dakota Gordon is entering Chad Young territory.  No higher praise can be offered to any Aztec fullback.

WR:  A point of major weakness in 2014.  Poor route running.  Extreme lack of concentration.  No confidence.  Alas, 2015 Aztec receivers cannot be any worse.  I choose to anticipate renewed vigor and focus given the arrival of the new wide receivers coach, Hunkie Cooper (how can you not have confidence in a man named Hunkie?).  Lloyd Mills (moments of brilliance during 2014), Mikah Holder, Eric Judge and Chase Favreau head a list of credible receivers.  Unlike the Bob Toledo years, look for two, rather than three, receivers at the line of scrimmage.

TE:  All five on the depth chart are listed at 6’5″, thus Maxwell Smith should not have difficulty finding any of them downfield.  If Daniel Brunskill and David Wells each develop a pair of hands, this position could be the surprise of the offense.

OL:  Darrell Greene’s six game suspension puts the damper on three of five returning starters.  Now Nico Siragusa and Pearce Slater are the shining light of return.  Kwayde Miller, Arthur Flores, Robert Craighead more than likely complete the starting five.  Austin Mass probably backs Mr. Flores at the center spot.  Joe Salcedo (redshirt freshman) impresses o-line coach, Mike Schmidt.  This group allows for a successful start or a few games of adjustment as the season begins.

DL:  Jon Sanchez, Christian Heyward and Alex Barrett may be the best d-line in the West of the Mountain West.

LB:  Calvin Munson was the defensive surprise of 2014.  Expect no drop-off in 2015.  If, if, Jake Fely is healthy, he and Mr. Munson will provide and deliver a substantial amount of energy and hurt.  Choose from Jay Henderson, Devante Davis or Ryan Dunn as the other starter.

DB:  What is the greatest benefit of the return of J.J. Whitaker, Damontae Kazee, Malik Smith, Trey Lomax and Na’im McGee?  They all started in 2014.  This lends to a certain calm, satisfying sleep pattern on behalf of Rocky Long.  Coaching these five becomes more of a conversation than instruction.  A great depth rarely found on a college football team.  This group is the strength of the 3-3-5.  Anticipate much more blitzing than any year since Mr. Long arrived on the Mesa.

K:  Donny Hageman and his wonderfully accurate foot return.

P:  Tanner Blain or Joe Weilbacher.  You choose.

LS:  Jeff Overbaugh (and a guaranteed NFL draft selection).

Coaches:  Jeff Horton remains the running backs coach while assuming offensive coordinator duties.  He has edited Bob Toledo’s playbook.  Rather, removed dozens of pages.  Simplicity is the theme.  With a new starting quarterback, I second the idea.  Hunkie Cooper, granted, has zero collegiate experience, but he brings an energy and demand upon the wide receivers not seen in years.  Bobby Hauck, who was seemingly 100-2 at Montana as head coach, should strengthen the special teams.  I find smart of athletic director Jim Sterk to have two ex-head coaches on staff in Mr. Horton and Mr. Hauck.  Whenever Mr. Long decides to retire, in-house replacement may be a convenient and effective theme.  Blaine Morgan enters year one as SDSU quarterbacks coach.  As a former Air Force Cadet quarterback, anticipate Mr. Morgan grooming a feet-don’t-fail-me-now option when all else fails with Aztec quarterbacks.  Media folks love to swoon over Mr. Long’s unique 3-3-5 alignment, but without a quality defensive coaching staff, a 3-3-5 equals 0.  Coaches Lewis (d-line), Arnett (linebackers), White (cornerbacks) and Gonzales (safeties) deserve a great deal of credit and note on behalf of a superb 2014 defensive effort that was nationally ranked.  Look for even greater defensive heights in 2015.

2015 Schedule:  Beginning the season against USD is less than ideal, but a game is a game.  At Cal follows.  An immediate test to determine the real ability of the Aztec defense.  South Alabama is the second home game.  The Jags recruit kids thought to be a step below SEC ability.  This game must find a prepared Aztec squad or this is a not so surprising loss.  Penn State at Happy Valley follows.  I’m predicting an Aztec win (at last) over a legendary football program.  Fresno State (and their impressive band of alumni travelers) opens MWC play at the Q.  Two road games follow:  at Hawaii and at San Jose State.  The Aztecs return home for the always challenging Aggies of Utah State.  A Halloween game at Fort Collins may bring heavy snow, high winds or a pleasant evening.  Wyoming, at UNLV and Nevada finish the 2015 season.  Since two of three are at the Q, opportunity exists to right any prior disappointment.  Worst case:  7-5.  Best case:  10-2.

Final thoughts:  Will 2015 finally yield a win over a PAC-12 school (Cal) or nationally recognized legend (Penn State)?  Will Donnel Pumphrey rush for a minimum of 100 yards each game?  Is Jeff Horton’s offensive scheme simple enough or too simple?  Does an Aztec defense returning eight defensive starters smash opposing offenses or suffer from a case of overconfidence?  As always, stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

 

A butt kicking that should have been a butt kicking.  San Jose State uses three quarterbacks to the collective effort of 17/31 with one touchdown, but all for a paltry 133 yards.  The Aztec defense keeps the Spartan offense to less than 245 total yards.  In the words of Montgomery (Mr.) Burns, “Excellent.”

Let’s talk about the Aztecs.  7-5/5-3.  Not bad.  Candidly, not good, rather average, but given the difficulties at quarterback, Ruffin missing a handful of games and Fely never fully recovering from his injury, 2014 could have been a lot worse.

Speaking of difficulties at quarterback, Quinn Kaehler must have been feeling the shoulder ding as the game progressed.  Two series in the third quarter was reminiscent of Nick Bawden’s attempts to direct the offense earlier in the year.  Some games, Quinn has little to nothing, and yesterday was one of those games.  15 attempts and 4 completions is all that needs to be said. Thankfully, the o-line was absolutely dominating.  At times, the Spartan defensive line resembled a bad juco team.  The Aztec front five was getting pushes four to five yards deep seemingly every snap against the Spartans.  San Jose State was walking backwards in a rude fashion.  Pumphrey was fantastic.  Pump deserves all accolades given.  Any running back averaging 12.1 yards per carry is offering a game to remember.  The offense finishing the regular season with a 5/5 effort in the almighty red zone, was a job well done, especially with 4 of the 5 being touchdowns.  9 of 17 on third down was also of positive note.  Again, a sweep of the helmet to the Aztec o-line.

Now, we wait.  Bowl people are fickle.  I politely disagreed with the Poinsettia Bowl post-game exchange between Uncle Teddy and Kirk Morrison.  The gents were assuming a bit too much.  Sure, playing in the Poinsettia Bowl in a rematch with Navy would be welcome.  Candidly, playing any bowl game anywhere is welcome.  Keep those spears and fingers crossed.

A general review of the 2014 SDSU football season is in the works (you do not need to thank me).

No excuses for the absence.  Wasn’t too busy, too distracted, too anything.  After the Boise game, meh took over.

Meh to not scoring touchdowns.  Meh to field goals instead of touchdowns.  Meh to watching the Broncos run wild in the fourth quarter.  The Aztecs should have been north of 40 on the score board, but our inability to find the end zone once inside the twenty was more than obvious.  Said shortcoming was painfully obvious.  With this loss, bowling looks highly unlikely.

As for Air Force, a little better.  Just a little.  Two more offensive touchdowns at a minimum.  30 points should have been 44 points.  Coulda, shoulda, woulda.  I don’t know how Rocky Long and Bob Toledo solve this inability to score six rather than settle for three (or nothing).  Bowl eligible, sure.  Bowl invite, I do not believe.  Even with a lopsided win over San Jose State this Saturday, bowling seems like whistling in the wind or dark or underwater.

The Aztec defense was superb.  Holding Air Force to 3.4 yards per rush, 329 yards in total offense, posting zeros three of four quarters and forcing 3 (!) fumbles and 1 interception was incredible and proof of a great team effort.  Calvin Munson was having a fantastic game long before the interception returned for a touchdown.  A couple of nice moves as well.  Perhaps Pump was paying attention.  Christian Heyward filled in nicely for Alex Barrett.  Between Barrett and Munson, we have the anchors for the 2015 Aztec defense.

One last thought on a bowl game:  In a perfect SDSU world the final weekend of MWC play yields a UNLV upset of Nevada (battle for the state of Nevada and all that, plus the Rebels would love to blow up what is left of the Wolfpack’s season), Hawaii stuns Fresno State (Norm Chow is out the door.  I’m no fan, but maybe the Hawaii players give him a good-bye gift of a win) and, to make us look as good as possible, Colorado State pounds the Cadets (a final line of 8-4/4-4 for Air Force might make a bowl committee think twice?  I’m reaching.  I know).  First and foremost, we beat the Spartans, hopefully, by an impressive margin, and the rest takes care of itself.  Never a dull moment with the Aztecs.

Jon Sanchez should do nothing else but run.  Run the entire week of practice.  Run, Jon, run.  An idiotic move on his part eliminates Aztec momentum at a key moment of developing separation, i.e., we were playing well.  Mr. Sanchez yanks on an opponent’s face mask which was equivalent to opening the door for the Vandals’ offense or, if you prefer, slamming the door on the Aztec offense, nay, team.

Yet, we win.

Ezell Ruffin catching not one, but two touchdown passes bodes well for the remainder of the year.  Mr. Ruffin finding the end zone must become common place if the Aztecs wish to receive a bowl invitation.  4 for 86 coupled with Eric Judge’s 4 for 107 was a welcome development.  The bulk of Quinn Kaehler’s 249 yards of completions are found in the hands of Mr. Ruffin and Mr. Judge.

Speaking on behalf of Mr. Kaehler, shame on the offensive line for allowing four sacks against a struggling opponent.

Returning to the other side of the ball, the Aztec defense was horrible the first half.  Then the ever-present “at the half” adjustment occurred.  The “adjusted” Aztec defense (I can only imagine the blistering speech by one Rocky Long in the locker room), less the idiocy of Mr. Sanchez, was a sight to behold.  Candidly, giving up 21 points to the Vandals was 14 too many.  26 first downs?  379 total yards?  The stuff of upset, but a closer look reveals a paltry 3.9 yards per rush.  The Idaho receivers dropped at least three passes that would have resulted in continuing drives.  Perhaps our defensive backs kicked up enough dust to interfere with Vandal vision.  We can only hope.

The cold, thin air of Boise awaits.  The Broncos were lucky to beat a bad UNM team.  Hopefully, the Aztecs arrive ready to play four quarters of football, not two.  Air Force and San Jose State arrive at the Q to finish the year.  2-1 worst case.  I’m expecting 3-0.

The maniac rant is first, analysis is second.

Nick Bawden brings very little.  He is ineffective.  He is a mid-level manager searching for inspiration while claiming to provide leadership.  4 of 13 for 63 yards is not an Aztec quarterback.  Nor a quarterback who should appear on a depth chart.  If Mr. Bawden is the best Brian Sipe can recruit from the deep pool of southern California, then I impolitely suggest that Mr. Sipe log many more miles on his car.  I firmly suggest that Mr. Bawden sit for the remainder of the year while Christian Chapman assumes the number two spot on the depth chart.

Speaking of quarterbacks, the return of Quinn Kaehler was of note.  Upon his third quarter entry, the offense was much crisper.  Seemingly, SDSU looked like the second coming of the 49ers offense during the 1980s.  Yet, all we did was run.  And run.  And run.  Thank goodness for Donnel Pumphrey and Chase Price.  Those two were fantastic.  Donnel logging 246 yards and Chase hitting 141 yards were both a sight to behold.  And, yes, I forgive both of you for fumbling.  But, no more.  Congrats to the offensive line.  The big guys were head and shoulders above the UNM d-line.  Bob Toledo found something lacking on the left side of the UNM defense, and the Aztec line pummeled that weakness.  Better conditioning, stronger.  Altitude be damned.  Well done.

The Aztec defense continues to impress.  The Lobos triple option did not provide much of any option the entire evening.  152 yards rushing and a mere 111 yards passing is testament to another top-notch SDSU defensive effort.  The poor 4 for 13 on third down conversions was further proof of an Aztec defense that clicked the entire night.  Trey Lomax played his best game of the year.  Damontae Kazee had an impressive fourth quarter.  I did note that Rocky went with a four-man front the entire game.  Dakota Turner has played himself into a starting role.

I have accepted that Mr. Kaehler  will throw at least one interception per game.  I’d rather that outcome than the alternative.

Hawaii at the Q is next.  3-3/2-1 should (always a dangerous word) become 4-3/3-1.  Fresno State’s loss to UNLV was most welcome.

The good news:  We won.  Donald Hageman made a field goal and all the point after kicks.  Almost 31,000 in the stands.  Mrs. Gwynn has excellent aim.

The bad news:  Quinn Kaehler played with the authority of a newbie.  The linebacking crew was as effective as a dieter in Hodads, thus the defensive backs were far too involved.

The Aztecs rushed for three of five touchdowns.  Donnel Pumphrey looked very good (19/111).  Chase Price’s first run from scrimmage is Youtube bound.  Enthusiasm doesn’t begin to describe that run.  Returning to Kaehler, 18-29-1 is passable (no pun intended) on paper, but the reality was yuck.  He threw behind his receivers a half-dozen times.  He was well short a couple of times.  Ruffin’s one-handed grab was testament to the difficulty all Aztec receivers faced in attempting to catch a pass.  Thanks to Bob Toledo’s play calling, we struck an almost perfect balance between the rush (194) and pass (205) for  a yard shy of 400 overall.  Not bad for the first game.

Six of the top seven tacklers were defensive backs.  Not good.  Far too much advance past the line of scrimmage by the NAU Lumberjacks.  Micah Seau had one assist.  He started.  Boo.  Of the 65 total tackles (solo and assists), a measly 14 were credited to the linebacking crew.  A below average 22% of total tackles.  Rocky was very unhappy and rightfully so.  The third quarter, the NAU coaching staff discovered the left side of the Aztec defense was an open door leading downfield.  That was an ugly period of time.  As usual, Rocky adjusted and the problem disappeared, but such a deficiency is most disappointing against a team such as the L’jacks that do not have near our athletic ability (sorry, NAU).

Next Saturday is UNC.  If Kaehler plays flatline football, we are in for a looooooonnnnnnngggggggg evening.  If the linebacking corps remains passive to the line of scrimmage, refer to the aforementioned length of evening.  The game is an ESPN broadcast.  Time to play well, let the nation know the Aztecs are national, not just regional and beat the Tar Heels.

Offense

Quarterbacks:  Anytime productive, returning starting quarterbacks return, bonus points await.  Quinn Kaehler will notably improve upon last year’s numbers.  Bob Toledo has stated that he intends to add many a layer to this year’s offense.  Mr. Burns may as well add another hound.  Warren Buffet may as well want to make more money.  Kaehler will average better than 35 attempts this year and more than 300 yards a game.  Aztec receivers will be most pleased.  More on the receiving corps later.  Nick Bawden named the back-up to Kaehler was a surprise.  On behalf of all, may Mr. Bawden see nothing more than mop up work deep into the fourth quarter during 2014.

Running Backs:  Listening to Donnel Pumphrey explain during a recent 1090 broadcast that he had “put on weight” only to land at 170 pounds was worth a laugh.  Donnel will never take an extended defensive pounding, but he can run, he can turn a corner and as Ted Leitner will say many a time during Donnel’s Aztec years:  “He’s gone!”  The partner back, whether Chase Price or Marcus Stamps, will be a bruiser.  Lucky Radley (the Utah transfer) may well offer a surprisingly productive single year as an Aztec.  Adam Roberts may not block as well as Chad Young (who does?), but Adam will tuck away many a short pass from Kaehler at a key time to keep a drive alive or slide over the goal line.  Both back ups, Dakota Gordon and Chris Hokokian, are juniors looking to impress for 2015.

Receivers:  I include tight ends with the tall skinny guys.  Ezell Ruffin should have a mammoth year.  Sure, he’ll suffer many a double team, but with Toledo’s decision to enhance all things offense, a double team will cost the opposition as much as one-on-one with Ezell.  Larry Clark, Eric Judge, Jemond Hazely, Robert Craighead and Daniel Brunskill bring experience.  Paul Pitts and Lloyd Mills are the best of the rest in waiting.

O-Line:  Compared to last year’s hand wringing at this time, seems the Aztecs do not have much concern.  Size is important, but more so quick feet.  Terry Poole (310 lbs), Nico Siragusa (325 lbs), Darrell Greene (315 lbs) and Pearce Slater (335 lbs) are reported fine dancers.  The “light” Zach Dilley (a mere 295 lbs) will snack his way to the triple hundred club.  Paul Rodriguez, Jordan Smith and Garrett Corbett are experienced and too far down the depth chart.  Alas, Rocky believes in daily competition.

Defense

D-Line:  I’m a bit flummoxed at the concern.  I see five guys with experience.  Perhaps too much is made of Dontrell Onuoha as the only returning starter and Cody Galea’s switch to the linebacking corps.  Jon Sanchez, Sam Meredith, Alex Barrett and Kenny Galea’i played effectively last year.  Truly a group that improved as the season wore on.  I look for a jump in sacks and general knock downs from this group.  To think, if Christian Heyward ever realizes his health and potential, this group could be imposing.

Linebackers:  How quickly strength can become weakness.  With Jake Fely and Josh Gavert out until who knows when, Derek Largent indeed becomes the old man.  Galea, while new to the linebacking position, brings three years of experience into the 2014 season.  Rocky has stated that Galea will occupy a pseudo line position at the start of each snap, thus modifying the 3-3-5, but this strikes me as an opportunity for Rocky to be creative.  Fred Melifonwu, Calvin Munson, Mich Seau and Devante Davis will be busy.  Many a true freshmen (four are listed on the 8/12/14 depth chart) may receive a swift introduction to division one football.

The Last Five (or commonly known as the defensive backfield in other programs):  The safety concerns are well-known.  I expect a burn or two especially against UNC and the Beavers.  Hopefully, whatever is given away defensively can be recaptured offensively.  Regardless, Na’im McGee does bring juco experience and Trey Lomax is backed up by the experienced TJ Hickman.  Malik Smith and Pierre Romain will one-two the other Warrior spot until one out plays the other.  J.J. Whittaker and Damontae Kazee will be the best corner duo in the MWC by season’s end.

Special Teams and the Rest:  McMorrow’s fall from grace continues.  Joel Alesi keeps the punting job.  Newcomer Danny Hageman is the kicker . . . for now.  McMorrow lingers behind both.  The kickoff and punt returns will be the usual exercise in control and fumble avoidance, but I can’t wait to see Marcus Stamps return a kickoff with a head of steam underway.  Cleats will fly.  Jeff Overbaugh is back for year three as the long snapper.  The best compliment one can give a long snapper is only senior long snappers receive mention as the draft approaches.  We will hear much about Jeff next year.

A note of caution.  The shortcoming that drove me crazy last year was the defense taking the first half to get in game mode.  Granted, Rocky always makes the halftime adjustment, but this year, I’d much rather enjoy the sight of a finely tuned defense game ready at the coin flip rather than the first minute of the second half.

Prediction:  Best case, 10-2.  Worst case, 8-4.  Another bowl game either way.  The offense averages near 450 yards per game.

May health be an Aztec blessing.