Seven new head coaches begin in 2024. Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, Utah State and Wyoming all feature new guys in charge. Additionally, the transfer portal turnover is more impactful than last year (leaving and arriving). Oregon State and Washington State tour the conference as preferred guests in order to form a coherent schedule. The first four spots in 2024 are seemingly firm. Air Force, Boise State, Fresno State (July head coaching change be damned) and UNLV will jockey throughout the year for the best finish. Let us begin with specifics.
Dead Last: Nevada. Jeff Choate inherits a woeful, bad, though they tried hard, 2-10/2-6 team. Two quarterbacks return. Brendon Lewis, A.J. Bianco and the transfer Chubba Purdy (who doesn’t love somebody named Chubba?) compete for the #1 role. Do not be surprised to witness a shuffle of the three as the season progresses. Their #1 running back from 2023 returns (Sean Dollars 3.5 yards per carry. Not good) and not much else as the Wolf Pack hopes to replace their top six receivers from 2023.
11. San Jose State. The former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo takes over for the departed Brent Brennan. Mr. Brennan employed a passing dominated offensive scheme which I do not see Mr. Niumatalolo continuing. I anticipate a 2024 chant of “Let’s copy Air Force because that’s what I did at Navy”. Yes, four d-1 quarterback transfers are on campus along with in-a-pinch qb Nick Nash who must be approaching the age of 30 (he’s been wearing a Spartan uniform seemingly for years and years and years). The 2024 challenge lies in the fact very little returns of the 2023 running game. Returning to the aforementioned Nick Nash, he did lead the team in receiving last year (48 catches, 728 yards for a 15.2 yards per catch line). He is joined by the #3 receiver, Malikhi Miller (24/290/12.1) and #5 Matthew Coleman (12/119/9.9) from 2023. To the dismay of Spartan faithful, look for a flip of last year’s average of scoring 31.8 points per game while giving up 25.6 points.
10. Wyoming. Craig Bohl retired and Jay Sawvel took his place. Sadly, Mr. Sawvel was able to attract a total of 3 tranfers. Bless them. Evan Svoboda likely assumes the starting qb spot due to a lack of competition less the Utah transfer Jayden Clemons. Harrison Waylee ( 5.8 yards per carry and 947 yards gained) returns hoping to find a partner with either Sam Scott (4.8/237) or Jamari Ferrell (3.6/188). 2023’s #3 receiver, Michael Gyllenbork (23/360/15.7) will hold the same hope as Mr. Waylee and find a couple of other receivers to help him out.
9. Hawaii. Tommy Chang’s pass happy offense improves slightly. Brayden Schager (332/525 for a completion rate of 63.2% and an impressive 3,542 yards) will a enjoy a buffet via the return of his top six receivers from 2023. Leading the way are Pofele Ashlock (83/832/10.0) and Steven McBride (63/1,024/16.3). As usual, Mr. Chang prefers to rarely run the football. Look for another anemic ground game on the Island. Finally, Mr. Chang unimpressively doubled Wyoming’s in-coming transfer number with 6. Yes, one of the six is a running back. A brave young man.
8. New Mexico. Bronco Mendenhall decided he was bored and needed an extreme challenge, so he returned to coach the long struggling Lobos. Good luck, Bronco. Mr. Mendenhall, understanding the twisting, turning road ahead of him, landed 29 transfers (the most in the MWC). 23 of the 29 are either offensive lineman or on the defensive side of the ball. No sense in fooling yourself. Last year’s average of giving up 35 points per game will lessen which is the good news. However, the offense is void of anything looking like a passing game for 2024. Devon Dampier, last year’s #2 qb, will handoff a great deal during the first few games in 2024 as wide receivers look to establish a pecking order. Andrew Henry will continue to pound away with ball in hand (6.7/350). Transfers Javen Jacobs and Eli Sanders will provide running back buddies for Mr. Henry.
7. San Diego State. Another newbie, Sean Lewis, joins the MW. Mr. Lewis during his head coaching stint at Kent State (2018 – 2022) created interesting offensive chaos to score points. The Aztecs hired Mr. Lewis to duplicate the Kent State years. Mr. Lewis hopes to immediately improve upon last year’s anemic 20.5 points per game. The Florida State transfer, AJ Duffy becomes the starting qb. Jaylon Armstead (4.3/448), Kenan Christon (3.9/378) and Cam Davis (4.3/225) desperately need help from incoming transfers as does the returning receiving corps of Meki Shaw (28/375/13.4) and Baylin Brooks (15/261/17.4).
6. Utah State. Blake Anderson was shown the door long after spring practice concluded. Nate Dreiling the defensive coordinator assumes the head coaching role by default (searching for a d-1 head football coach during the summer is insane). Four qb transfers will be in the mix for the starting spot. Either CJ Tiller (Boise State) or Bryson Barnes (Utah) wins the starting job. The good news for the people of Logan is enough returning production creates a sense of hope or lack of complete despair. Rashul Faison (6.2/736) and Robert Briggs (5.3/420) lead the rushing efforts while Jaylen Royals (71/1,080/15.2), Micah Davis (36/628/17.4) and Colby Bowman (11/247/22.5) hope to continue to stretch the field.
5. Colorado State. Be warned, if Jay Norvell stumbles, adios. Yes, repeating last year’s 5-7/3-5 qualifies as stumbling. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi needs to significantly reduce his 16 interceptions from 2023. Otherwise, his line of 292/470/62.1% for 3,460 impresses. The returning running game is depressing, but the returning receivers led by Tory Horton (96/1,136/11.8) offer Mr. Fowler-Nicolosi another year of stellar production.
2 (T). UNLV. Barry Odom surprised often during 2023 and finished with a 9-5/6-3 mark. He faces a significant challenge in replacing both his #1 and #2 quarterbacks. Cameron Friel offers prior experience, though he did not play in 2023. The running game needs to be replaced almost entirely. Wondering why I chose these guys to tie for second? 20 transfers well sprinkled on both sides of the ball leads to probable impact to maintain or come close to last year’s success. Ricky White, III (88/1,483/16.9) leads enough returning receivers to keep last year’s 34.4 points per game within reach.
2 (T). Fresno State. Losing head coach Jeff Tedford to health concerns during the month of July certainly raises concerns for the 2024 Bulldogs, but the return of Mikey Keene and his 67% completion rate lowers any immediate panic. Malik Sherrod (5.6/966) continues another strong rushing effort in 2024. Jalen Moss (55/706/12.8) and Mac Delena (47/509/10.8) will once again enjoy the talents of Mr. Keene. Look for Fresno State to improve upon last year’s impressive 30.5 points per game.
1 (T). Boise State. What else is new. Mark Madsen, last year’s #2 qb, becomes this year’s #1 qb. His line of 81/132 for 1,191 yards at least doubles in 2024. Ashton Jeanty (6.1/1,347) has another imprerssive year. Jambres Dubar (5.4/335) moves in as Mr. Jeanty’s primary backfield partner. The returning receivers are thin, but Boise State has a long history of developing talent. Do not worry, citizens of Boise.
1 (T). Air Force. Troy Calhoun’s 2023 defense allowed a stingy 18.2 points per game. Look for something similar in 2024. Throwing the ball does not significantly impact the Air Force offense (never has). John Busha will join a long line of Air Force qbs who will enjoy running the ball down the throats of opponents defense to wait for the proper moment to complete a 30+ yard pass as a final “ha-ha” moment. Nothing changes in 2024.
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